UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
Louisville, USA
3 Mar 2011
Lightweight
VS
58%
Tavares
42%
Roller
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:28
TT
Thiago Tavares
21 – 7
5'7"70" reachOrthodox41 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 18
SR
Shane Roller
11 – 7
Well-Rounded46 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'10"
CFR 13

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Tavares

This is a genuine toss-up — Tavares at 58% vs Roller at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Tavares has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Tavares's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Roller has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Tavares
Roller
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'10"
70"
Reach
+72"
41+
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Tavares
Roller
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.0
13.2
48.8
Performance Avg
37.3
42
Quality of Victory
40
81
Momentum Score
28
Tavares
Roller
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.8
44%
Strike Accuracy
41%
2.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
5
0
Body
0
1
Leg
3
RangeRange
2Distance6
0Clinch0
0Ground2
Tavares
Roller
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
3.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Tavares
Roller
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
52
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
5
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/28 fights
Chin rating based on
6/18 fights
Tavares
Roller
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
81
28
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
Tavares
Roller
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
5
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Tavares
Roller
Striking2.2 / 5.7Volume4.4 / 4.7Grappling5.0 / 1.2Wrestling3.5 / 0.8Submission5.0 / 0.0Pressure6.0 / 4.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
5.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
3.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
4.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
Tavares
Strike Zones
Roller
Tavares
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY3LEGS8 absorbed
Roller
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY3LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Tavares targets the head (50% of attacks) — Roller absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Roller targets the head (63% of attacks) — Tavares absorbs 63% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Tavares
RND
Roller
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Tavares · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W5.2W5.5L4.5W2.8L5.5L4.5W5.0W2.8L5.2W4.5W1.5L5.0W5.0W5.4L5.5W3.3L2007-042008-092012-012015-112016-07
WinLossTrend

Roller · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.7
0105.2W1.5L4.0L5.6L4.5W1.5L2011-032011-072011-102012-012012-072012-10
WinLossTrend

Tavares · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Dooho ChoiRating 3.3
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale · 2016-07
W · Sub · R1
Clay GuidaRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · 2015-11
L · KO · R3
Brian OrtegaRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · 2015-06
W · Sub · R1
Robert PeraltaRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux · 2014-08
W · Sub · R1
Justin SalasRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 · 2013-11

Roller · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Jacob VolkmannRating 1.5
Submission
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot · 2012-10
W · Dec · R3
John AlessioRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2 · 2012-07
L · Dec · R3
Michael JohnsonRating 5.6
Decision
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis · 2012-01
L · Sub · R3
TJ GrantRating 4
Submission
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson · 2011-10
L · KO · R1
Melvin GuillardRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber · 2011-07

News & Media

Thiago Tavares · Shane Roller
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