UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen
San Antonio, USA
25 Mar 2023
Flyweight
VS
98%
Vergara
2%
Lacerda
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:04
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Vergara
Vergara is a strong favourite at 98% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 35 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Vergara has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 35 points.
Vergara has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Vergara's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Lacerda has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Vergara
Lacerda
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
5'6"
68"
Reach
+70"
34
Age
+29
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Vergara
Lacerda
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.6
0.7
36.0
Performance Avg
0.0
35
Quality of Victory
0
30
Momentum Score
0
Vergara
Lacerda
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
1.6
56%
Strike Accuracy
40%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
49
Head
2
12
Body
2
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
14Distance4
0Clinch0
49Ground0
Vergara
Lacerda
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.6
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Vergara
Lacerda
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
10
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/19 fights
Chin rating based on
6/17 fights
Vergara
Lacerda
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
30
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
Vergara
Lacerda
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Vergara
Lacerda
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
VergaraLacerda
Strike Zones
Vergara
Attacking
63 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedLacerda
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
63 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Vergara targets the head (78% of attacks) — Lacerda absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Lacerda targets the head (50% of attacks) — Vergara absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Vergara
RND
Lacerda
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Vergara · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Lacerda · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.3WinLossTrend
Vergara · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Edgar ChairezRating 2.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · KO · R1
Ramazan TemirovRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Asu AlmabayevRating 6.6Decision
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
W · Dec · R3
Vinicius SalvadorRating 4.5Decision
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · KO · R2
Daniel LacerdaRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03
Lacerda · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Edgar ChairezRating 2.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
Upcoming
Edgar ChairezUFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09
L · KO · R2
CJ VergaraRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03
L · KO · R1
Victor AltamiranoRating 1.6KO/TKO
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
L · Sub · R1
Francisco FigueiredoRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04