UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
Las Vegas, USA
2 Feb 2013
Welterweight
VS
39%
Fitch
61%
Maia
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JF
Jon Fitch
30 – 7
6'0"74" reachOrthodox48 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 21
DM
Demian Maia
28 – 11
Well-Rounded2-fight slide48 yrsSouthpaw72" reach6'1"
CFR 32

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Maia

Maia holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Fitch has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Fitch has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Maia has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Fitch
Maia
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'1"
74"+
Reach
72"
48
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Fitch
Maia
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.0
32.4
52.4
Performance Avg
50.8
32
Quality of Victory
40
100
Momentum Score
100
Fitch
Maia
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
0.5
57%
Strike Accuracy
41%
2.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
0
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Fitch
Maia
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.1
2.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Fitch
Maia
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
38
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/37 fights
Chin rating based on
33/39 fights
Fitch
Maia
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Fitch
Maia
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
55%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
11
10
Decision Wins
10

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Fitch
Maia
Striking2.4 / 1.8Volume7.4 / 5.0Grappling3.4 / 5.1Wrestling2.4 / 3.6Submission2.1 / 5.0Pressure4.5 / 5.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.8
3.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.1
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
2.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
7.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
Fitch
Strike Zones
Maia
Fitch
Attacking
1HEAD1BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Maia
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD1BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Fitch targets the head (50% of attacks) — Maia absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Fitch
RND
Maia
0/0R00/0

Fitch · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0104.5W5.2W5.2W4.5W5.2W5.2W4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L4.5W5.5L2005-102007-062009-072012-102013-02
WinLossTrend

Maia · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.0W5.4W5.5W5.0W5.0W1.5L4.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W6.3L5.0W5.0W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.5W5.9W5.6W5.9W5.0W4.5W5.5L6.8L6.6L5.0W4.5W5.2W1.7L6.6L2007-102010-122014-052018-052021-06
WinLossTrend

Fitch · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Demian MaiaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar · 2013-02
W · Dec · R3
Erick SilvaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar · 2012-10
L · KO · R1
Johny HendricksRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem · 2011-12
Upcoming
BJ Penn
Decision
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch · 2011-02
W · Dec · R3
Thiago AlvesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen · 2010-08

Maia · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
L · KO · R1
Gilbert BurnsRating 1.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03
W · Sub · R3
Ben AskrenRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren · 2019-10
W · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · 2019-06
W · Sub · R1
Lyman GoodRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · 2019-02

News & Media

Jon Fitch · Demian Maia
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