UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
10 Oct 2020
Heavyweight
VS
39%
Rothwell
61%
Tybura
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Tybura
Tybura holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Rothwell has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Rothwell has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Tybura has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Rothwell's chin rating of 34 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Tybura has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Rothwell
Tybura
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'3"
78"
Reach
78"
44
Age
+40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Rothwell
Tybura
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
27.0
42.5
49.7
Performance Avg
45.2
48
Quality of Victory
37
45
Momentum Score
58
Rothwell
Tybura
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.6
46%
Strike Accuracy
53%
5.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.0
4 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
19
4
Body
3
3
Leg
3
RangeRange
12Distance23
1Clinch0
0Ground2
Rothwell
Tybura
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.9
2.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Rothwell
Tybura
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
34
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
5
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.6 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/53 fights
Chin rating based on
24/38 fights
Rothwell
Tybura
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
58
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · R2
L · Sub · R1
Rothwell
Tybura
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
78%
36%
4
KO / TKO Wins
4
3
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Rothwell
Tybura
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.0
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.9
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.7
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.3
2.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
RothwellTybura
Strike Zones
Rothwell
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedTybura
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Rothwell targets the head (46% of attacks) — Tybura absorbs 46% of strikes there
🎯Tybura targets the head (76% of attacks) — Rothwell absorbs 76% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Rothwell
RND
Tybura
0/0R00/0
Rothwell · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Tybura · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Rothwell · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Marcos Rogerio de LimaRating 2.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · 2021-11
W · Sub · R2
Chris BarnettRating 6.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · 2021-05
L · Dec · R3
Marcin TyburaRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
Ovince Saint PreuxRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira · 2020-05
W · KO · R2
Stefan StruveRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
Tybura · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Tyrell FortuneRating 6.8Decision
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L · KO · R1
Ante DelijaRating 2.5KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Mick ParkinRating 5.6Decision
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W · R2
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L · Sub · R1
Serghei SpivacRating 2Submission
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