UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
Las Vegas, USA
25 May 2013
Featherweight
VS
97%
Stephens
3%
Payan
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Stephens
Stephens is a strong favourite at 97% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 44 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Stephens has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 40 points.
Stephens has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Stephens's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Payan has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Stephens
Payan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
71"
Reach
40+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Stephens
Payan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.0
1.5
41.1
Performance Avg
0.0
40
Quality of Victory
0
76
Momentum Score
0
Stephens
Payan
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
0.6
42%
Strike Accuracy
37%
5.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
7 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
5
8
Body
1
3
Leg
2
RangeRange
7Distance6
0Clinch2
14Ground0
Stephens
Payan
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Stephens
Payan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
54
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
4
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
36/52 fights
Chin rating based on
3/28 fights
Stephens
Payan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
0
7-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
Stephens
Payan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
47%
0%
7
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Stephens
Payan
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
StephensPayan
Strike Zones
Stephens
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedPayan
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Stephens targets the head (48% of attacks) — Payan absorbs 48% of strikes there
🎯Payan targets the head (63% of attacks) — Stephens absorbs 63% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Stephens
RND
Payan
0/0R00/0
Stephens · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Payan · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.8WinLossTrend
Stephens · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
King GreenRating 2.2Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Mason JonesRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Sub · R1
Mateusz GamrotRating 2.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Calvin KattarRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Dec · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 7.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10
Payan · Last 3
L · KO · R1
Alex WhiteRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne · 2014-04
L · KO · R3
Robert PeraltaRating 4KO/TKO
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2 · 2013-12
L · Dec · R3
Jeremy StephensRating 6Decision
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2 · 2013-05