★ Championship Bout · 17 Middleweight Tournament
UFC 17: Redemption
Mobile, USA
15 May 1998
17 Middleweight Tournament
VS
39%
Henderson
61%
Newton
Win Probability
Decision
Round 2 · 3:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Newton
Newton holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Henderson has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Newton has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Striking split: Henderson throws more volume but Newton connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Henderson's chin rating of 2 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Newton has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Henderson
Newton
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'9"
74"
Reach
55
Age
+49
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Henderson
Newton
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.8
21.7
49.5
Performance Avg
54.9
49
Quality of Victory
63
20
Momentum Score
72
Henderson
Newton
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
0.2
46%
Strike Accuracy
47%
5.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
5
0
Body
1
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
0Distance9
0Clinch1
3Ground0
Henderson
Newton
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.3
/ 10
8.0
/ 10
0.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
5.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
10.0
0
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Henderson
Newton
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
2
52
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/47 fights
Chin rating based on
7/30 fights
Henderson
Newton
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
72
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R4
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
Henderson
Newton
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
100%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
3
5
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Henderson
Newton
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
1.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
0.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
4.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.3
5.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.9
HendersonNewton
Strike Zones
Henderson
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedNewton
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Henderson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Newton absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Newton targets the head (50% of attacks) — Henderson absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Henderson
RND
Newton
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Henderson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Newton · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Henderson · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Michael BispingRating 5.5Decision
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson · 2016-10
W · KO · R2
Hector LombardRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · 2016-06
L · KO · R1
Vitor BelfortRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · 2015-11
W · KO · R1
Tim BoetschRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · 2015-06
L · KO · R1
Gegard MousasiRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01
Newton · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Renato VerissimoRating 5.5Decision
UFC 46: Supernatural · 2004-01
W · Sub · R1
Pete SprattRating 5Submission
UFC 40: Vendetta · 2002-11
L · KO · R4
Matt HughesRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC 38: Brawl at the Hall · 2002-07
L · KO · R2
Matt HughesRating 2.1KO/TKO
UFC 34: High Voltage · 2001-11
W · Sub · R3
Pat MiletichRating 5.2Submission
UFC 31: Locked and Loaded · 2001-05