METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 78: Validation
Newark, USA
17 Nov 2007
Welterweight
VS
47%
Alves
53%
Lytle
Win Probability
★ Official Result
Thiago AlveswinsR2 · 5:00
def. Chris Lytle · UFC 78: Validation
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Lytle
→
Actual result
Alves wins
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Alves at 47% vs Lytle at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Alves has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Alves's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
AlvesLytle
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Alves
Lytle
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
70"+
Reach
68"
42+
Age
51
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Alves
Lytle
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.5
18.3
47.3
Performance Avg
46.2
42
Quality of Victory
44
63
Momentum Score
56
Alves
Lytle
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.6
1.3
45%
Strike Accuracy
42%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.0
7 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
13
5
Body
7
11
Leg
3
RangeRange
17Distance19
6Clinch4
0Ground0
Alves
Lytle
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.5
1.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Alves
Lytle
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
80
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/38 fights
Chin rating based on
20/49 fights
Alves
Lytle
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
56
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Alves
Lytle
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
53%
70%
7
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
6
7
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Alves
Lytle
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.0
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.5
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.9
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.0
5.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.4
4.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
AlvesLytle
Strike Zones
Alves
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedLytle
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Alves targets the legs (48% of attacks) — Lytle absorbs 48% of strikes there
🎯Lytle targets the head (57% of attacks) — Alves absorbs 57% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Alves
RND
Lytle
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Alves · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Lytle · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Alves · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Tim MeansRating 1.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
L · Dec · R3
Laureano StaropoliRating 5.5Decision
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
W · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · 2019-02
L · Dec · R3
Aleksei KunchenkoRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik · 2018-09
L · KO · R2
Curtis MillenderRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02
Lytle · Last 5
W · Sub · R3
Dan HardyRating 5.5Submission
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle · 2011-08
L · Dec · R3
Brian EbersoleRating 5.5Decision
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch · 2011-02
W · Dec · R3
Matt SerraRating 4.5Decision
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop · 2010-09
W · Sub · R2
Matt BrownRating 5.6Submission
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin · 2010-07
W · Sub · R1
Brian FosterRating 5Submission
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez · 2010-02