UFC 78: Validation
Newark, USA
17 Nov 2007
Welterweight
VS
47%
Alves
53%
Lytle
Win Probability
TA
Thiago Alves
"Pitbull"
23 – 15
5'9"70" reachOrthodox42 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 17
CL
Chris Lytle
"Lights Out"
31 – 18
Well-Rounded51 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'11"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Lytle

This is a genuine toss-up — Alves at 47% vs Lytle at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Alves has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Alves's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Alves
Lytle
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
70"+
Reach
68"
42+
Age
51
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Alves
Lytle
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.5
18.3
47.3
Performance Avg
46.2
42
Quality of Victory
44
63
Momentum Score
56
Alves
Lytle
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.3
45%
Strike Accuracy
42%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.0
7 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
13
5
Body
7
11
Leg
3
RangeRange
17Distance19
6Clinch4
0Ground0
Alves
Lytle
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.5
1.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Alves
Lytle
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
80
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/38 fights
Chin rating based on
20/49 fights
Alves
Lytle
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
56
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Alves
Lytle
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
53%
70%
7
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
6
7
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Alves
Lytle
Striking5.8 / 2.0Volume4.3 / 3.4Grappling1.5 / 5.5Wrestling1.0 / 3.9Submission0.7 / 6.0Pressure5.4 / 6.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.0
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.5
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.9
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.0
5.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.4
4.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
Alves
Strike Zones
Lytle
Alves
Attacking
7HEAD5BODY11LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD7BODY3LEGS23 absorbed
Lytle
Attacking
13HEAD7BODY3LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD5BODY11LEGS23 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Alves targets the legs (48% of attacks) — Lytle absorbs 48% of strikes there
🎯Lytle targets the head (57% of attacks) — Alves absorbs 57% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Alves
RND
Lytle
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Alves · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0102.8L5.0W5.0W2.8L4.5W5.2W5.2W4.2W5.2W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W5.5L5.0W4.0L4.5W5.2W4.4L5.9L4.5W2.8L5.5L5.1W5.5L1.6L2005-102007-112011-052017-042019-12
WinLossTrend

Lytle · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.8L5.8L5.2W5.2W5.5L4.8L5.5L5.5L5.0W4.8L5.0W5.5L4.5W5.5L4.5W5.0W5.6W4.5W5.5L5.5W2000-112005-102008-022010-022011-08
WinLossTrend

Alves · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Tim MeansRating 1.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
L · Dec · R3
Laureano StaropoliRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
W · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · 2019-02
L · Dec · R3
Aleksei KunchenkoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik · 2018-09
L · KO · R2
Curtis MillenderRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02

Lytle · Last 5

W · Sub · R3
Dan HardyRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle · 2011-08
L · Dec · R3
Brian EbersoleRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch · 2011-02
W · Dec · R3
Matt SerraRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop · 2010-09
W · Sub · R2
Matt BrownRating 5.6
Submission
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin · 2010-07
W · Sub · R1
Brian FosterRating 5
Submission
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez · 2010-02

News & Media

Thiago Alves · Chris Lytle
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