UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
Chicago, USA
8 Jun 2019
Bantamweight
VS
55%
Sterling
45%
Munhoz
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Aljamain
Aljamain Sterling
"Funk Master"
26 – 5
5'7"71" reachOrthodox36 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 54
Pedro
Pedro Munhoz
"The Young Punisher"
20 – 10
Well-Rounded3-fight slide39 yrsOrthodox65" reach5'6"
CFR 44

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Sterling

This is a genuine toss-up — Sterling at 55% vs Munhoz at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Munhoz throws more volume but Sterling connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Sterling's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Sterling
Munhoz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'6"
71"+
Reach
65"
36+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Sterling
Munhoz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
54.2
44.0
54.2
Performance Avg
46.2
38
Quality of Victory
44
71
Momentum Score
43
Sterling
Munhoz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
2.0
52%
Strike Accuracy
42%
2.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
50
Head
15
9
Body
7
5
Leg
15
RangeRange
63Distance37
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Sterling
Munhoz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.4
2.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Sterling
Munhoz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
80
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
23/31 fights
Chin rating based on
22/30 fights
Sterling
Munhoz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
71
43
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Sterling
Munhoz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
60%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
4
Submission Wins
3
12
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Sterling
Munhoz
Striking2.7 / 4.0Volume6.5 / 4.2Grappling3.2 / 3.4Wrestling2.3 / 2.4Submission2.2 / 3.0Pressure4.7 / 5.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.0
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.4
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
2.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.0
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.7
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.2
Sterling
Strike Zones
Munhoz
Sterling
Attacking
50HEAD9BODY5LEGS64 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD7BODY15LEGS37 absorbed
Munhoz
Attacking
15HEAD7BODY15LEGS37 landed
Absorbing
50HEAD9BODY5LEGS64 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Sterling targets the head (78% of attacks) — Munhoz absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Munhoz targets the head (41% of attacks) — Sterling absorbs 41% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Sterling
RND
Munhoz
0/0R00/0

Sterling · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.7W5.5W5.5W5.2W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.5W1.5L4.5W5.3W4.5W5.0W6.5W5.9W6.0W5.2W6.0W3.6L5.0W6.8L5.9W5.5W2014-022017-042019-062023-082026-04
WinLossTrend

Munhoz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0105.5L5.0W5.5L5.0W5.2W4.5W6.2W5.5L4.5W5.0W6.1W6.5L5.5L4.5W6.0L5.5L5.0W6.3L6.2L6.6L2014-022017-052019-032021-122024-11
WinLossTrend

Sterling · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Youssef ZalalRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Dec · R5
Brian OrtegaRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Movsar EvloevRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Calvin KattarRating 5
Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
L · KO · R2
Sean O'MalleyRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08

Munhoz · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Aiemann ZahabiRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Kyler PhillipsRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Marlon VeraRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08
W · Dec · R3
Chris GutierrezRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
Upcoming
Sean O'Malley
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07

News & Media

Aljamain Sterling · Pedro Munhoz
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