UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
Las Vegas, USA
10 Dec 2022
Heavyweight
VS
58%
Rozenstruik
42%
Daukaus
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:23
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Rozenstruik
This is a genuine toss-up — Rozenstruik at 58% vs Daukaus at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Daukaus has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Rozenstruik's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Daukaus has a chin rating of 12 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Rozenstruik
Daukaus
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'3"
78"+
Reach
76"
38
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Rozenstruik
Daukaus
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.0
41.9
56.7
Performance Avg
55.2
54
Quality of Victory
59
56
Momentum Score
59
Rozenstruik
Daukaus
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
3.8
53%
Strike Accuracy
55%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
8 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
1
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
9Distance1
0Clinch0
3Ground0
Rozenstruik
Daukaus
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Rozenstruik
Daukaus
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
12
KO risk
Verdict
4 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/21 fights
Chin rating based on
8/19 fights
Rozenstruik
Daukaus
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
59
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R4
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
Rozenstruik
Daukaus
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
89%
100%
8
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Rozenstruik
Daukaus
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
0.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.5
2.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.0
RozenstruikDaukaus
Strike Zones
Rozenstruik
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedDaukaus
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Rozenstruik targets the head (100% of attacks) — Daukaus absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Daukaus targets the head (100% of attacks) — Rozenstruik absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Rozenstruik
RND
Daukaus
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Rozenstruik · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Daukaus · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Rozenstruik · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sergei PavlovichRating 6.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Tai TuivasaRating 4.9Decision
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
W · KO · R4
Shamil GazievRating 6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · 2024-03
L · Sub · R1
Jailton AlmeidaRating 3.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05
W · KO · R1
Chris DaukausRating 5.3KO/TKO
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · 2022-12
Daukaus · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Khalil Rountree Jr.Rating 2.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08
L · KO · R1
Jairzinho RozenstruikRating 2.6KO/TKO
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · 2022-12
L · KO · R2
Curtis BlaydesRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03
L · KO · R1
Derrick LewisRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12
W · KO · R2
Shamil AbdurakhimovRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09