UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson
Las Vegas, USA
8 May 2021
Welterweight
VS
46%
Magny
54%
Neal
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Neal
This is a genuine toss-up — Magny at 46% vs Neal at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Neal has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Neal has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Magny's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Neal has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Magny
Neal
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
5'11"
80"+
Reach
75"
38
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Magny
Neal
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
47.5
55.8
47.4
Performance Avg
51.7
36
Quality of Victory
48
75
Momentum Score
72
Magny
Neal
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
2.2
50%
Strike Accuracy
55%
4.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.4
7 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
24
Head
9
8
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
28Distance10
4Clinch0
0Ground0
Magny
Neal
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
1.6
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
1.3
Submission Style (/10)
1.3
3
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Magny
Neal
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
38
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
2
6
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/46 fights
Chin rating based on
14/24 fights
Magny
Neal
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
75
72
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Magny
Neal
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
42%
75%
7
KO / TKO Wins
5
3
Submission Wins
1
14
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Magny
Neal
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.4
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.3
4.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.0
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.1
MagnyNeal
Strike Zones
Magny
Attacking
32 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedNeal
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
32 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Magny targets the head (75% of attacks) — Neal absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Neal targets the head (90% of attacks) — Magny absorbs 90% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Magny
RND
Neal
0/0R00/0
Magny · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Neal · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
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L · Sub · R1
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