UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
New Orleans, USA
19 Jul 2025
Heavyweight
VS
67%
Spann
33%
Brzeski
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:47
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Spann
Spann holds a meaningful edge at 67% per the CFR ratings — but Brzeski has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Spann has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.
Brzeski has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Spann's chin rating of 8 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Brzeski has a chin rating of 18 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Spann
Brzeski
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'5"+
Height
6'3"
79"+
Reach
78"
34
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Spann
Brzeski
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
43.3
21.3
54.8
Performance Avg
20.7
50
Quality of Victory
25
10
Momentum Score
30
Spann
Brzeski
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
2.3
40%
Strike Accuracy
50%
5.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.3
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
1
0
Body
0
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
2Distance5
0Clinch0
6Ground0
Spann
Brzeski
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.5
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Spann
Brzeski
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
8
18
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/35 fights
Chin rating based on
7/16 fights
Spann
Brzeski
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
10
30
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Spann
Brzeski
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
0%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Spann
Brzeski
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.3
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.4
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.3
SpannBrzeski
Strike Zones
Spann
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedBrzeski
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Spann targets the head (100% of attacks) — Brzeski absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Brzeski targets the legs (80% of attacks) — Spann absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Spann
RND
Brzeski
0/0R00/0
Spann · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Brzeski · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Spann · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Marcus BuchechaRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Sub · R1
Lukasz BrzeskiRating 5Submission
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · KO · R2
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 4.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03
W · Sub · R1
Ovince Saint PreuxRating 5.6Submission
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · KO · R2
Bogdan GuskovRating 4.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
Brzeski · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Ryan SpannRating 1.9Submission
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · KO · R1
Kennedy NzechukwuRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · KO · R1
Mick ParkinRating 2.6KO/TKO
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R3
Valter WalkerRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · 2024-04
L · KO · R1
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · 2023-08