METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
New Orleans, USA
19 Jul 2025
Heavyweight
VS
66%
Spann
34%
Brzeski
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:47
★ Official Result
Ryan SpannwinsSubmissionR1 · 2:47
def. Lukasz Brzeski · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Spann
→
Actual result
Spann wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Spann holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Brzeski has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Spann has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.
Risk flags
Spann's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Brzeski has a chin rating of 18 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SpannBrzeski
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Spann
Brzeski
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'5"+
Height
6'3"
79"+
Reach
78"
35
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Spann
Brzeski
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
41.9
21.3
53.3
Performance Avg
20.7
50
Quality of Victory
25
10
Momentum Score
30
Spann
Brzeski
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.2
/ 10
0.3
/ 10
7.4
Style: Pressure
0.4
2.8
Style: Volume
8.3
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
1
0
Body
0
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
2Distance5
0Clinch0
6Ground0
Spann
Brzeski
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.7
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
2.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
4.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
4
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Spann
Brzeski
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
18
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/35 fights
Chin rating based on
7/16 fights
Spann
Brzeski
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
10
30
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Spann
Brzeski
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
0%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Spann
Brzeski
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.3
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.4
2.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.3
SpannBrzeski
Strike Zones
Spann
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedBrzeski
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Spann targets the head (100% of attacks) — Brzeski absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Brzeski targets the legs (80% of attacks) — Spann absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Spann
RND
Brzeski
0/0R00/0
Spann · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Mario PintoKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · 2026-09
W · KO · R2
Marcus BuchechaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Sub · R1
Lukasz BrzeskiSubmission
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · KO · R2
Waldo Cortes AcostaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03
W · Sub · R1
Ovince Saint PreuxSubmission
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
Brzeski · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Ryan SpannSubmission
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · KO · R1
Kennedy NzechukwuKO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · KO · R1
Mick ParkinKO/TKO
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R3
Valter WalkerDecision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · 2024-04
L · KO · R1
Waldo Cortes AcostaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · 2023-08