UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
Las Vegas, USA
14 Dec 2019
Flyweight
VS
50%
Moreno
50%
Kara-France
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Brandon
Brandon Moreno
"The Assassin Baby"
23 – 10
5'7"70" reachOrthodox32 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 53
Kai
Kai Kara-France
"Don't Blink"
25 – 12
Well-Rounded33 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'4"
CFR 53

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Moreno

This is a genuine toss-up — Moreno at 50% vs Kara-France at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Kara-France throws more volume but Moreno connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Moreno's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Kara-France has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Moreno
Kara-France
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'4"
70"+
Reach
69"
32+
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Moreno
Kara-France
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.8
52.5
52.5
Performance Avg
47.5
47
Quality of Victory
38
54
Momentum Score
80
Moreno
Kara-France
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
2.0
44%
Strike Accuracy
41%
3.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
29
Head
19
5
Body
4
0
Leg
6
RangeRange
34Distance29
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Moreno
Kara-France
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.5
2.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Moreno
Kara-France
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
50
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/33 fights
Chin rating based on
13/37 fights
Moreno
Kara-France
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
54
80
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Moreno
Kara-France
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
46%
38%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
3
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Moreno
Kara-France
Striking3.0 / 5.0Volume4.9 / 6.2Grappling3.3 / 1.5Wrestling2.3 / 1.1Submission2.7 / 0.0Pressure5.0 / 4.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.2
Moreno
Strike Zones
Kara-France
Moreno
Attacking
29HEAD5BODY0LEGS34 landed
Absorbing
19HEAD4BODY6LEGS29 absorbed
Kara-France
Attacking
19HEAD4BODY6LEGS29 landed
Absorbing
29HEAD5BODY0LEGS34 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Moreno targets the head (85% of attacks) — Kara-France absorbs 85% of strikes there
🎯Kara-France targets the head (66% of attacks) — Moreno absorbs 66% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Moreno
RND
Kara-France
0/0R00/0

Moreno · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0105.0W4.5W5.2W5.5L6.8L5.4W4.5W5.8W6.3W6.6L6.1W5.3W6.8L6.3L5.8W5.1W4.5L6.2L2016-102019-122022-072025-032026-02
WinLossTrend

Kara-France · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0104.5W4.5W4.5W6.4L4.7W3.5L5.0W6.1W4.5W3.6L6.8L5.6W4.0L2018-122020-022022-032025-06
WinLossTrend

Moreno · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Lone'er KavanaghRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · KO · R2
Tatsuro TairaRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R5
Steve ErcegRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
W · Dec · R5
Amir AlbaziRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11
L · Dec · R5
Brandon RoyvalRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02

Kara-France · Last 5

L · Sub · R3
Alexandre PantojaRating 4
Submission
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · KO · R1
Steve ErcegRating 5.6
KO/TKO
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · Dec · R5
Amir AlbaziRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
L · KO · R3
Brandon MorenoRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · 2022-07
W · Dec · R3
Askar AskarovRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03

News & Media

Brandon Moreno · Kai Kara-France
← Back to fights