UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
Las Vegas, USA
13 Apr 2024
Lightweight
VS
54%
Turner
46%
Moicano
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:11
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Turner
This is a genuine toss-up — Turner at 54% vs Moicano at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Turner has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Turner has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Turner's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Moicano has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Turner
Moicano
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
5'11"
77"+
Reach
72"
31+
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Turner
Moicano
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.7
50.3
56.4
Performance Avg
51.7
56
Quality of Victory
43
65
Momentum Score
64
Turner
Moicano
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
3.1
1.9
51%
Strike Accuracy
50%
7.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.1
5 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
26
1
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
6Distance7
1Clinch1
0Ground20
Turner
Moicano
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.0
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Turner
Moicano
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
6
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
10 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/24 fights
Chin rating based on
20/28 fights
Turner
Moicano
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
64
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · R2
W · KO · R2
Turner
Moicano
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
62%
5
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
7
0
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Turner
Moicano
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.1
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.0
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.5
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.4
8.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.3
1.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.8
TurnerMoicano
Strike Zones
Turner
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
28 absorbedMoicano
Attacking
28 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Turner targets the head (86% of attacks) — Moicano absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Moicano targets the head (93% of attacks) — Turner absorbs 93% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Turner
RND
Moicano
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Turner · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Moicano · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Turner · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Edson BarbozaRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Sub · R1
Ignacio BahamondesRating 2.8Submission
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · KO · R2
Renato MoicanoRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R1
King GreenRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Dan HookerRating 6.4Decision
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07
Moicano · Last 5
W · Sub · R2
Chris DuncanRating 6.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Beneil DariushRating 6.5Decision
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
L · Sub · R1
Islam MakhachevRating 3.5Submission
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · R2
Benoit Saint DenisRating 5.9UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09
W · KO · R2
Jalin TurnerRating 6.5KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04