UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales
Las Vegas, USA
17 May 2025
Flyweight
VS
70%
Park
30%
Hernandez
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:26
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Park
Park is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 41 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Park has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 45 points.
Hernandez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Hernandez has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Park
Hernandez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'8"
66"
Reach
+67"
30+
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Park
Hernandez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
71.8
31.3
65.8
Performance Avg
32.1
70
Quality of Victory
25
78
Momentum Score
35
Park
Hernandez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.5
37%
Strike Accuracy
47%
4.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
2
6
Body
0
3
Leg
2
RangeRange
11Distance4
3Clinch0
0Ground0
Park
Hernandez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
5.3
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
3.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
6.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Park
Hernandez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
52
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/12 fights
Chin rating based on
7/15 fights
Park
Hernandez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
35
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Park
Hernandez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Park
Hernandez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
5.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
3.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
6.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.3
1.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.9
ParkHernandez
Strike Zones
Park
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedHernandez
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Park targets the body (43% of attacks) — Hernandez absorbs 43% of strikes there
🎯Hernandez targets the head (50% of attacks) — Park absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Park
RND
Hernandez
0/0R00/0
Park · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Hernandez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Park · Last 5
L · Sub · R3
Bruno SilvaRating 4.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · Sub · R2
Tatsuro TairaRating 3.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08
W · Sub · R1
Carlos HernandezRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · KO · R2
Shannon RossRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12
W · Sub · R3
SeungGuk ChoiRating 5.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac · 2023-02
Hernandez · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
HyunSung ParkRating 3.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Nyamjargal TumendemberelRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Rei TsuruyaRating 5.7Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
L · KO · R2
Tatsuro TairaRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12
W · Dec · R3
Denys BondarRating 4.5Decision
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