UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
7 Sept 2019
Welterweight
VS
60%
Muhammad
40%
Sato
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 1:55
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Muhammad
Muhammad holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Sato has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Sato has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 27 points.
Striking split: Muhammad throws more volume but Sato connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Sato has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Muhammad
Sato
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
72"
Reach
+73"
37
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Muhammad
Sato
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.8
38.3
48.5
Performance Avg
45.9
31
Quality of Victory
58
100
Momentum Score
46
Muhammad
Sato
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.1
45%
Strike Accuracy
49%
2.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
7
2
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
9Distance8
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Muhammad
Sato
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Muhammad
Sato
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
50
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
19 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/29 fights
Chin rating based on
7/23 fights
Muhammad
Sato
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
46
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Muhammad
Sato
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
0
12
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Muhammad
Sato
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.9
7.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.6
MuhammadSato
Strike Zones
Muhammad
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedSato
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Muhammad targets the head (78% of attacks) — Sato absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Sato targets the head (88% of attacks) — Muhammad absorbs 88% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Muhammad
RND
Sato
0/0R00/0
Muhammad · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Sato · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Muhammad · Last 5
Upcoming
Gabriel BonfimUFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
L · Dec · R3
Ian Machado GarryRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
L · Dec · R5
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 7Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
W · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 5.6Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R5
Gilbert BurnsRating 4.7Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
Sato · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Themba GorimboRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05
L · KO · R1
Bryan BattleRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill · 2022-08
L · Dec · R3
Gunnar NelsonRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · 2022-03
L · Sub · R2
Miguel BaezaRating 3.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark · 2020-11
W · KO · R1
Jason WittRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker · 2020-06