The Ultimate Fighter: A Champion Will Be Crowned Finale
Las Vegas, USA
12 Dec 2014
Featherweight
VS
42%
Stephens
58%
Oliveira
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Jeremy
Jeremy Stephens
"Lil' Heathen"
29 – 23
5'9"71" reachOrthodox40 yrs7-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 45
Charles
Charles Oliveira
"Do Bronxs"
37 – 11
Pressure Fighter2-fight win streak36 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'10"
CFR 63

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Oliveira

This is a genuine toss-up — Stephens at 42% vs Oliveira at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Oliveira has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.

Striking split: Stephens throws more volume but Oliveira connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Stephens's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Oliveira has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Stephens
Oliveira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
71"
Reach
+74"
40
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Stephens
Oliveira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.0
63.3
41.1
Performance Avg
58.6
40
Quality of Victory
51
76
Momentum Score
100
Stephens
Oliveira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.1
42%
Strike Accuracy
53%
5.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.0
7 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
8
5
Body
3
3
Leg
5
RangeRange
15Distance10
0Clinch4
9Ground2
Stephens
Oliveira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
1.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.8
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Stephens
Oliveira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
5
4
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
36/52 fights
Chin rating based on
37/48 fights
Stephens
Oliveira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
100
7-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
Stephens
Oliveira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
47%
84%
7
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
17
8
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Stephens
Oliveira
Striking5.5 / 3.0Volume4.6 / 2.7Grappling1.1 / 5.8Wrestling0.8 / 4.1Submission0.0 / 6.8Pressure4.5 / 8.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.0
1.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.8
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.8
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.7
Stephens
Strike Zones
Oliveira
Stephens
Attacking
16HEAD5BODY3LEGS24 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD3BODY5LEGS16 absorbed
Oliveira
Attacking
8HEAD3BODY5LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD5BODY3LEGS24 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Stephens targets the head (67% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Oliveira targets the head (50% of attacks) — Stephens absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Stephens
RND
Oliveira
0/0R00/0

Stephens · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0102.8L4.5W5.2W5.5L5.7W2.8L5.5L4.0W4.5W5.5L5.5W4.5W5.5L5.5L1.5L4.5W5.0W5.0W6.0L6.9L5.5W6.6L4.5W5.5L6.3L4.5W6.9W5.2W2.0L5.5L7.1L3.2L2.6L6.5L2.2L2007-052010-092014-062018-022026-05
WinLossTrend

Oliveira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5W5.5W1.9L1.5L5.0W5.2W2.0L5.5L5.5W5.2W5.0W5.5W2.6L5.0W4.0L2.8L5.0W2.8L5.5W5.4W5.4W5.2W5.2W5.4W5.3W5.0W5.9W6.6W6.6W4.1L6.0W7.1L5.3W3.9L6.2W5.6W2010-082014-062018-062021-122026-03
WinLossTrend

Stephens · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
King GreenRating 2.2
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Mason JonesRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Sub · R1
Mateusz GamrotRating 2.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Calvin KattarRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Dec · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 7.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10

Oliveira · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Sub · R2
Mateusz GamrotRating 6.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Ilia TopuriaRating 3.9
KO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Michael ChandlerRating 5.3
Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Arman TsarukyanRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04

News & Media

Jeremy Stephens · Charles Oliveira
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