METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champion Will Be Crowned Finale
Las Vegas, USA
12 Dec 2014
Featherweight
VS
42%
Stephens
58%
Oliveira
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
CFR 63
★ Official Result
Charles OliveirawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Jeremy Stephens · The Ultimate Fighter: A Champion Will Be Crowned Finale
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Oliveira
→
Actual result
Oliveira wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Stephens at 42% vs Oliveira at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Oliveira has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Risk flags
Stephens's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Oliveira has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
StephensOliveira
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Stephens
Oliveira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
71"
Reach
+74"
40
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Stephens
Oliveira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.0
63.3
41.1
Performance Avg
58.6
40
Quality of Victory
51
76
Momentum Score
100
Stephens
Oliveira
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.5
/ 10
3.0
/ 10
4.5
Style: Pressure
8.0
4.6
Style: Volume
2.7
7 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
4 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
8
5
Body
3
3
Leg
5
RangeRange
15Distance10
0Clinch4
9Ground2
Stephens
Oliveira
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.1
/ 10
5.8
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
4.1
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
6.8
0
Submission wins
17
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Stephens
Oliveira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
5
4
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
36/52 fights
Chin rating based on
37/48 fights
Stephens
Oliveira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
100
7-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
Stephens
Oliveira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
47%
84%
7
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
17
8
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Stephens
Oliveira
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.0
1.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.8
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.8
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.7
StephensOliveira
Strike Zones
Stephens
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedOliveira
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Stephens targets the head (67% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Oliveira targets the head (50% of attacks) — Stephens absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Stephens
RND
Oliveira
0/0R00/0
Stephens · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
King GreenSubmission
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Mason JonesDecision
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L · Sub · R1
Mateusz GamrotSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Calvin KattarKO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Dec · R3
Yair RodriguezDecision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10
Oliveira · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Max HollowayDecision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Sub · R2
Mateusz GamrotSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Ilia TopuriaKO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Michael ChandlerDecision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Arman TsarukyanDecision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04