UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson
Tampa, USA
12 Oct 2019
Flyweight
VS
61%
Figueiredo
39%
Elliott
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:08
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Figueiredo
Figueiredo holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Elliott has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Figueiredo has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Striking split: Elliott throws more volume but Figueiredo connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Figueiredo's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Elliott has a chin rating of 26 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Figueiredo
Elliott
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
+5'7"
68"+
Reach
66"
38+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Figueiredo
Elliott
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.4
36.8
57.9
Performance Avg
37.9
50
Quality of Victory
33
55
Momentum Score
43
Figueiredo
Elliott
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.4
54%
Strike Accuracy
44%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
10
0
Body
1
0
Leg
15
RangeRange
6Distance20
2Clinch6
0Ground0
Figueiredo
Elliott
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.1
2.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Figueiredo
Elliott
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
26
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
5
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/31 fights
Chin rating based on
22/36 fights
Figueiredo
Elliott
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
55
43
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
Figueiredo
Elliott
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
57%
30%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
3
6
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Figueiredo
Elliott
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.1
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
2.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.0
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.5
FigueiredoElliott
Strike Zones
Figueiredo
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedElliott
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Figueiredo targets the head (100% of attacks) — Elliott absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Elliott targets the legs (58% of attacks) — Figueiredo absorbs 58% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Figueiredo
RND
Elliott
0/0R00/0
Figueiredo · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Elliott · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Figueiredo · Last 5
Upcoming
Song YadongUFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Umar NurmagomedovRating 6.8Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Montel JacksonRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · KO · R2
Cory SandhagenRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Dec · R5
Petr YanRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · 2024-11
Elliott · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Steve ErcegRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
W · Sub · R2
Kai AsakuraRating 5.2Submission
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · Sub · R1
SumudaerjiRating 5.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
Muhammad MokaevRating 5.4Submission
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
W · Dec · R3
Victor AltamiranoRating 4.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06