UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
Atlantic City, USA
22 Jun 2012
Lightweight
VS
23%
Maynard
77%
Guida
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Guida
Guida is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 31 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Guida throws more volume but Maynard connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Maynard's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Guida has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Maynard
Guida
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'7"
70"
Reach
70"
47
Age
+44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Maynard
Guida
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.3
44.2
41.4
Performance Avg
40.7
28
Quality of Victory
35
60
Momentum Score
78
Maynard
Guida
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
1.0
40%
Strike Accuracy
36%
2.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.1
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
11
1
Body
0
5
Leg
0
RangeRange
9Distance11
2Clinch0
6Ground0
Maynard
Guida
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.7
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Maynard
Guida
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
5
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
8
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
14 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20 fights
Chin rating based on
37/60 fights
Maynard
Guida
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
78
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Maynard
Guida
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
9%
39%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
5
10
Decision Wins
11
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Maynard
Guida
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.1
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.8
2.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.9
MaynardGuida
Strike Zones
Maynard
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedGuida
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Maynard targets the head (65% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 65% of strikes there
🎯Guida targets the head (100% of attacks) — Maynard absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Maynard
RND
Guida
0/0R00/0
Maynard · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Guida · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Maynard · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Nik LentzRating 2.8KO/TKO
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L · Sub · R1
Chase HooperRating 2.3Submission
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