UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2
Las Vegas, USA
11 Jan 2025
Lightweight
VS
55%
Aliev
45%
Solecki
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Aliev
This is a genuine toss-up — Aliev at 55% vs Solecki at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Solecki has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Striking split: Aliev throws more volume but Solecki connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Aliev
Solecki
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
72"+
Reach
70"
25+
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Aliev
Solecki
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.8
49.1
55.0
Performance Avg
43.6
25
Quality of Victory
36
100
Momentum Score
65
Aliev
Solecki
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.0
45%
Strike Accuracy
45%
2.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.1
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
18
5
Body
0
1
Leg
3
RangeRange
24Distance19
0Clinch0
0Ground2
Aliev
Solecki
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.6
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Aliev
Solecki
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
72
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/11 fights
Chin rating based on
9/19 fights
Aliev
Solecki
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
65
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Aliev
Solecki
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
40%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Aliev
Solecki
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.1
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.6
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
3.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
10.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.9
AlievSolecki
Strike Zones
Aliev
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedSolecki
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Aliev targets the head (75% of attacks) — Solecki absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Solecki targets the head (86% of attacks) — Aliev absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Aliev
RND
Solecki
0/0R00/0
Aliev · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Solecki · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Aliev · Last 3
W · Dec · R3
Shem RockRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Joe SoleckiRating 5.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
W · Dec · R3
Rafael AlvesRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · 2023-02
Solecki · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Nurullo AlievRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
L · Dec · R3
Grant DawsonRating 7Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
L · KO · R1
Drakkar KloseRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
W · Sub · R2
Carl DeatonRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · 2023-02
W · Dec · R3
Alex Da SilvaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · 2022-06