UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
Winnipeg, Canada
15 Jun 2013
Bantamweight
VS
44%
Jabouin
56%
Pague
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
YJ
Yves Jabouin
"Tiger"
20 – 11
5'7"68" reachOrthodox46 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 12
DP
Dustin Pague
"The Disciple"
12 – 11
Submission Hunter4-fight slide38 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'9"
CFR 15

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Pague

This is a genuine toss-up — Jabouin at 44% vs Pague at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Pague has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 29 points.

Striking split: Jabouin throws more volume but Pague connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Jabouin's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Pague has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Jabouin
Pague
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'9"
68"
Reach
+74"
46
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Jabouin
Pague
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
11.7
14.6
35.0
Performance Avg
39.1
25
Quality of Victory
54
55
Momentum Score
20
Jabouin
Pague
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
0.5
42%
Strike Accuracy
52%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
3
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch0
4Ground3
Jabouin
Pague
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Jabouin
Pague
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
50
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/31 fights
Chin rating based on
6/23 fights
Jabouin
Pague
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
55
20
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Jabouin
Pague
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Jabouin
Pague
Striking1.0 / 0.3Volume9.0 / 0.3Grappling2.4 / 8.0Wrestling1.7 / 5.6Submission0.0 / 10.0Pressure1.5 / 7.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.3
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
1.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
9.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.3
Jabouin
Strike Zones
Pague
Jabouin
Attacking
4HEAD1BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Pague
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD1BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Jabouin targets the head (80% of attacks) — Pague absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Pague targets the head (100% of attacks) — Jabouin absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Jabouin
RND
Pague
0/0R00/0

Jabouin · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.1
0101.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L4.5W2.8L4.5W1.5L1.5L2011-042012-052014-012015-08
WinLossTrend

Pague · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0101.5L5.0W5.5L5.5L5.5L4.2L2011-122012-062012-062012-082013-062013-10
WinLossTrend

Jabouin · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Felipe ArantesRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira · 2015-08
L · KO · R1
Thomas AlmeidaRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi · 2015-04
W · Dec · R3
Mike EastonRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov · 2014-06
L · KO · R2
Eddie WinelandRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson · 2014-01
W · Dec · R3
Dustin PagueRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson · 2013-06

Pague · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Kyoji HoriguchiRating 4.2
KO/TKO
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 · 2013-10
L · Dec · R3
Yves JabouinRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson · 2013-06
L · Dec · R3
Chico CamusRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II · 2012-08
L · Dec · R3
Ken StoneRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida · 2012-06
W · Sub · R1
Jared PapazianRating 5
Submission
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall · 2012-06

News & Media

Yves Jabouin · Dustin Pague
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