UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song
Seattle, USA
22 Feb 2025
Catch Weight
VS
53%
Font
47%
Matsumoto
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Font
This is a genuine toss-up — Font at 53% vs Matsumoto at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Font has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Striking split: Matsumoto throws more volume but Font connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Font
Matsumoto
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'6"
71"+
Reach
68"
38
Age
+26
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Font
Matsumoto
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.4
52.4
49.1
Performance Avg
43.9
44
Quality of Victory
33
91
Momentum Score
75
Font
Matsumoto
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.9
46%
Strike Accuracy
43%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.2
6 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
34
Head
26
6
Body
3
0
Leg
12
RangeRange
32Distance37
8Clinch4
0Ground0
Font
Matsumoto
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Font
Matsumoto
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
96
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/32 fights
Chin rating based on
6/19 fights
Font
Matsumoto
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
91
75
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Font
Matsumoto
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
33%
6
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Font
Matsumoto
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.2
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
0.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.1
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.5
FontMatsumoto
Strike Zones
Font
Attacking
40 landedAbsorbing
41 absorbedMatsumoto
Attacking
41 landedAbsorbing
40 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Font targets the head (85% of attacks) — Matsumoto absorbs 85% of strikes there
🎯Matsumoto targets the head (63% of attacks) — Font absorbs 63% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Font
RND
Matsumoto
0/0R00/0
Font · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Matsumoto · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.7WinLossTrend
Font · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Raul Rosas Jr.Rating 7.1Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
L · Dec · R3
David MartinezRating 7.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Jean MatsumotoRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Kyler PhillipsRating 5.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Deiveson FigueiredoRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
Matsumoto · Last 5
Upcoming
Bekzat AlmakhanUFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
L · Dec · R3
Farid BasharatRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
W · Dec · R3
Miles JohnsRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Rob FontRating 6.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Brad KatonaRating 4.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10