UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
Toronto, Canada
8 Dec 2018
Light Heavyweight
VS
43%
Clark
57%
Rakic
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:05
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Rakic
This is a genuine toss-up — Clark at 43% vs Rakic at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Rakic throws more volume but Clark connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Clark's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Rakic has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Clark
Rakic
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'4"
75"
Reach
+78"
36
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Clark
Rakic
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
28.7
37.5
35.7
Performance Avg
43.8
28
Quality of Victory
37
43
Momentum Score
25
Clark
Rakic
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.5
54%
Strike Accuracy
50%
2.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.4
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
12
0
Body
10
4
Leg
9
RangeRange
3Distance11
9Clinch10
7Ground10
Clark
Rakic
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Clark
Rakic
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
30
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
4
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/23 fights
Chin rating based on
11/20 fights
Clark
Rakic
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
25
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Clark
Rakic
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
13%
33%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Clark
Rakic
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.4
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.0
7.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.4
ClarkRakic
Strike Zones
Clark
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedRakic
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Clark targets the head (79% of attacks) — Rakic absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Rakic targets the head (39% of attacks) — Clark absorbs 39% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Clark
RND
Rakic
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Clark · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Rakic · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Clark · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Marcin PrachnioRating 5.9Decision
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W · Dec · R3
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Rakic · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Azamat MurzakanovRating 3.4KO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
Magomed AnkalaevRating 7Decision
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L · KO · R2
Jiri ProchazkaRating 4.4KO/TKO
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L · KO · R3
Jan BlachowiczRating 3.3KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Thiago SantosRating 4.5Decision
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