★ Championship Bout · Heavyweight
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
Cleveland, USA
10 Sept 2016
Heavyweight
VS
76%
Miocic
24%
Overeem
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:27
Stipe
Stipe Miocic
20 – 5
6'4"80" reachOrthodox43 yrs2-fight slideStriker
CFR 56
AO
Alistair Overeem
"The Demolition Man"
47 – 19
Knockout Artist46 yrsOrthodox80" reach6'4"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Miocic

Miocic is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 38 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Overeem has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Miocic's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Overeem has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Miocic
Overeem
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"
Height
6'4"
80"
Reach
80"
43+
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Miocic
Overeem
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.3
18.1
64.9
Performance Avg
55.0
59
Quality of Victory
52
78
Momentum Score
56
Miocic
Overeem
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.7
53%
Strike Accuracy
73%
7.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.7
9 KOs
KO Finishes
9 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
31
Head
5
3
Body
3
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
16Distance7
6Clinch2
12Ground0
Miocic
Overeem
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.9
/ 10
0.6
/ 10
0.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Miocic
Overeem
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
8
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.1 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/25 fights
Chin rating based on
20/66 fights
Miocic
Overeem
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
56
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R4
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R1
Miocic
Overeem
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
75%
9
KO / TKO Wins
9
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Miocic
Overeem
Striking7.9 / 8.7Volume4.3 / 3.2Grappling0.9 / 0.6Wrestling0.6 / 0.4Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure6.7 / 7.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.7
0.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.6
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.0
4.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.2
Miocic
Strike Zones
Overeem
Miocic
Attacking
31HEAD3BODY0LEGS34 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD3BODY1LEGS9 absorbed
Overeem
Attacking
5HEAD3BODY1LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
31HEAD3BODY0LEGS34 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Miocic targets the head (91% of attacks) — Overeem absorbs 91% of strikes there
🎯Overeem targets the head (56% of attacks) — Miocic absorbs 56% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Miocic
RND
Overeem
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Miocic · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W5.0W5.2W2.1L4.5W4.5W5.0W5.5L5.5W5.7W5.0W5.0W5.0W4.9W1.5L5.4W4.5W2.5L4.5L2011-102014-012016-052019-082024-11
WinLossTrend

Overeem · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.0W4.0L1.5L4.5W1.5L5.0W4.5W5.2W5.8W2.6L5.5W4.5W1.9L4.9L6.2W5.0W5.1L5.1W5.7W3.4L2011-122014-122017-032019-042021-02
WinLossTrend

Miocic · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Jon JonesRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · KO · R2
Francis NgannouRating 2.5
KO/TKO
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2021-03
W · Dec · R5
Daniel CormierRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · 2020-08
W · KO · R4
Daniel CormierRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
L · KO · R1
Daniel CormierRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier · 2018-07

Overeem · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Alexander VolkovRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · 2021-02
W · KO · R5
Augusto SakaiRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai · 2020-09
W · KO · R2
Walt HarrisRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · 2020-05
L · KO · R5
Jairzinho RozenstruikRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
W · KO · R1
Aleksei OleinikRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · 2019-04

News & Media

Stipe Miocic · Alistair Overeem
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