UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
Fairfax, USA
11 Jan 2010
Welterweight
VS
68%
MacDonald
32%
Guymon
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:27
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: MacDonald
MacDonald holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Guymon has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
MacDonald has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Guymon has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
MacDonald's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Guymon has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
MacDonald
Guymon
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
6'0"
76"+
Reach
74"
36+
Age
51
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
MacDonald
Guymon
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.1
8.6
51.3
Performance Avg
25.0
39
Quality of Victory
25
61
Momentum Score
17
MacDonald
Guymon
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.5
45%
Strike Accuracy
62%
4.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
2
1
Body
3
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance3
1Clinch0
2Ground3
MacDonald
Guymon
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.7
2.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
MacDonald
Guymon
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
64
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R4.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/23 fights
Chin rating based on
4/21 fights
MacDonald
Guymon
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
17
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
MacDonald
Guymon
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
MacDonald
Guymon
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
MacDonaldGuymon
Strike Zones
MacDonald
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedGuymon
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯MacDonald targets the head (88% of attacks) — Guymon absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Guymon targets the body (50% of attacks) — MacDonald absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
MacDonald
RND
Guymon
0/0R00/0
MacDonald · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Guymon · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.3WinLossTrend
MacDonald · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Stephen ThompsonRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · 2016-06
L · KO · R5
Robbie LawlerRating 4.3KO/TKO
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07
W · KO · R3
Tarec SaffiedineRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine · 2014-10
W · Dec · R3
Tyron WoodleyRating 4.5Decision
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov · 2014-06
W · Dec · R3
Demian MaiaRating 4.5Decision
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann · 2014-02
Guymon · Last 4
L · Sub · R1
DaMarques JohnsonRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 2 · 2011-01
L · Sub · R1
Daniel RobertsRating 1.5Submission
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez · 2010-10
W · Dec · R3
Yoshiyuki YoshidaRating 4.5Decision
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2 · 2010-05
L · Sub · R1
Rory MacDonaldRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz · 2010-01