UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev
Las Vegas, USA
8 Mar 2025
Featherweight
VS
60%
Santos
40%
Marshall
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Santos
Santos holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Marshall has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Santos has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Striking split: Marshall throws more volume but Santos connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Santos
Marshall
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'9"
72"
Reach
72"
25+
Age
27
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Santos
Marshall
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
75.0
51.0
70.0
Performance Avg
46.7
50
Quality of Victory
40
100
Momentum Score
60
Santos
Marshall
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.1
47%
Strike Accuracy
32%
7.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
14
6
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
21Distance15
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Santos
Marshall
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.2
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Santos
Marshall
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
74
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/19 fights
Chin rating based on
7/13 fights
Santos
Marshall
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
60
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Santos
Marshall
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Santos
Marshall
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
SantosMarshall
Strike Zones
Santos
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedMarshall
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Santos targets the head (67% of attacks) — Marshall absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Marshall targets the head (93% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 93% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Santos
RND
Marshall
0/0R00/0
Santos · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.8WinLossTrend
Marshall · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Santos · Last 4
W · KO · R3
Muhammad NaimovRating 6.7KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Sodiq YusuffRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Francis MarshallRating 5.3Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
W · KO · R2
Kaan OfliRating 5.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · 2024-08
Marshall · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Lucas BrennanRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Sub · R1
Erik SilvaRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Mairon SantosRating 7.5Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Dennis BuzukjaRating 5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · 2024-08
L · KO · R1
Isaac DulgarianRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08