★ Championship Bout · Lightweight
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
Newark, USA
1 Jun 2024
Lightweight
VS
55%
Makhachev
45%
Poirier
Win Probability
Submission
Round 5 · 2:42
Islam
Islam Makhachev
28 – 1
5'10"70" reachSouthpaw34 yrs16-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 75
Dustin
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
30 – 10
Well-Rounded2-fight slide37 yrsSouthpaw72" reach5'9"
CFR 61

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Makhachev

This is a genuine toss-up — Makhachev at 55% vs Poirier at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Poirier throws more volume but Makhachev connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Poirier has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Makhachev
Poirier
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
70"
Reach
+72"
34+
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Makhachev
Poirier
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
74.5
61.4
69.8
Performance Avg
58.2
53
Quality of Victory
50
100
Momentum Score
100
Makhachev
Poirier
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.7
60%
Strike Accuracy
54%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
10 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
9
1
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
17Distance9
1Clinch2
0Ground0
Makhachev
Poirier
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.6
/ 10
2.2
/ 10
3.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.6
4.7
Submission Style (/10)
1.8
8
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Makhachev
Poirier
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
0
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
16 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/29 fights
Chin rating based on
32/40 fights
Makhachev
Poirier
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
16-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
Makhachev
Poirier
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
65%
64%
3
KO / TKO Wins
10
8
Submission Wins
4
6
Decision Wins
8

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Makhachev
Poirier
Striking3.6 / 6.0Volume4.7 / 4.0Grappling4.6 / 2.2Wrestling3.2 / 1.6Submission4.7 / 1.8Pressure7.4 / 6.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
4.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
3.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
4.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.8
7.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.6
4.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
Makhachev
Strike Zones
Poirier
Makhachev
Attacking
17HEAD1BODY0LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD1BODY1LEGS11 absorbed
Poirier
Attacking
9HEAD1BODY1LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
17HEAD1BODY0LEGS18 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Makhachev targets the head (94% of attacks) — Poirier absorbs 94% of strikes there
🎯Poirier targets the head (82% of attacks) — Makhachev absorbs 82% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Makhachev
RND
Poirier
0/0R00/0

Makhachev · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.2W1.5L4.5W4.5W5.0W5.0W6.1W4.5W6.7W5.6W5.9W5.7W6.5W6.0W6.5W6.8W5.8W6.0W2015-052018-072021-102024-062025-11
WinLossTrend

Poirier · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W4.5W5.2W6.1W3.9L5.0W6.0L4.5W5.0W5.2W3.5L6.0W5.0W4.5W5.7W1.6L4.9W5.2W6.9W5.1W5.6W2.8L5.4W7.1W6.0W4.2L6.3W3.7L6.9W6.0L6.6L2011-012013-122017-022021-072025-07
WinLossTrend

Makhachev · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 6
Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Sub · R1
Renato MoicanoRating 5.8
Submission
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R5
Dustin PoirierRating 6.8
Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · KO · R1
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 6.5
KO/TKO
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
W · Dec · R5
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 6
Decision
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · 2023-02

Poirier · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Sub · R5
Islam MakhachevRating 6
Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Benoit Saint DenisRating 6.9
KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · KO · R2
Justin GaethjeRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · Sub · R3
Michael ChandlerRating 6.3
Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11

News & Media

Islam Makhachev · Dustin Poirier
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