UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
Las Vegas, USA
29 Oct 2011
Middleweight
VS
86%
Jacoby
14%
Starks
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Jacoby
Jacoby is a strong favourite at 86% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 52 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Jacoby has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 23 points.
Jacoby has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Jacoby's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Starks has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Jacoby
Starks
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'0"
76"
Reach
+78"
38+
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Jacoby
Starks
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
62.1
10.0
53.8
Performance Avg
28.3
48
Quality of Victory
25
91
Momentum Score
27
Jacoby
Starks
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.4
0.4
50%
Strike Accuracy
27%
8.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
7 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
7
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance4
1Clinch0
0Ground3
Jacoby
Starks
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.7
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
0.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Jacoby
Starks
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
66
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/31 fights
Chin rating based on
3/16 fights
Jacoby
Starks
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
91
27
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Jacoby
Starks
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
70%
0%
7
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Jacoby
Starks
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
0.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
3.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
JacobyStarks
Strike Zones
Jacoby
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedStarks
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Jacoby targets the head (100% of attacks) — Starks absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Starks targets the head (100% of attacks) — Jacoby absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Jacoby
RND
Starks
0/0R00/0
Jacoby · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Starks · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.4WinLossTrend
Jacoby · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Julius WalkerRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
W · KO · R1
Bruno LopesRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · 2025-05
W · KO · R3
Vitor PetrinoRating 6.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · KO · R1
Dominick ReyesRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
L · Dec · R3
Alonzo MenifieldRating 6.4Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
Starks · Last 3
L · KO · R1
Yoel RomeroRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melendez · 2013-04
L · Sub · R2
Ed HermanRating 2.9Submission
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit · 2012-02
W · Dec · R3
Dustin JacobyRating 5.9Decision
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz · 2011-10