UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley
Las Vegas, USA
19 Sept 2020
Light Heavyweight
VS
54%
Walker
46%
Spann
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:43
Johnny
Johnny Walker
22 – 10
6'6"82" reachOrthodox34 yrsKnockout Artist
CFR 50
Ryan
Ryan Spann
"Superman"
24 – 11
Well-Rounded2-fight win streak34 yrsOrthodox79" reach6'5"
CFR 43

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Walker

This is a genuine toss-up — Walker at 54% vs Spann at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Walker has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Walker's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Spann has a chin rating of 8 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Walker
Spann
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'6"+
Height
6'5"
82"+
Reach
79"
34
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Walker
Spann
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.4
43.3
54.6
Performance Avg
54.8
56
Quality of Victory
50
41
Momentum Score
10
Walker
Spann
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
1.8
59%
Strike Accuracy
40%
8.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.3
6 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
24
Head
7
1
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance3
0Clinch0
22Ground4
Walker
Spann
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.5
1.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.7
0.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Walker
Spann
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
8
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/32 fights
Chin rating based on
16/35 fights
Walker
Spann
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
41
10
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
Upcoming
Last 5
W · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Walker
Spann
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
80%
6
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
4
1
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Walker
Spann
Striking8.6 / 5.3Volume2.1 / 2.9Grappling1.3 / 3.7Wrestling0.9 / 2.6Submission1.3 / 4.0Pressure7.7 / 7.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.3
1.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
0.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
7.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
2.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
Walker
Strike Zones
Spann
Walker
Attacking
24HEAD1BODY1LEGS26 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD0BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Spann
Attacking
7HEAD0BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
24HEAD1BODY1LEGS26 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Walker targets the head (92% of attacks) — Spann absorbs 92% of strikes there
🎯Spann targets the head (100% of attacks) — Walker absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Walker
RND
Spann
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0

Walker · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.9W5.0W5.0W1.5L6.7L5.4W5.5L2.8L5.3W5.7W5.7W3.7L2.3L7.2W6.5L2018-112020-032022-092024-062026-04
WinLossTrend

Spann · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W5.0W5.2W4.5W2.3L5.0W2.7L5.3W6.0W2.7L6.7L4.8L5.6W4.3L5.0W5.2W2018-092020-092022-112024-102026-04
WinLossTrend

Walker · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Dominick ReyesRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · KO · R2
Zhang MingyangRating 7.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · KO · R1
Volkan OezdemirRating 2.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
L · KO · R2
Magomed AnkalaevRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
Upcoming
Magomed Ankalaev
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10

Spann · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Marcus BuchechaRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Sub · R1
Lukasz BrzeskiRating 5
Submission
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · KO · R2
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 4.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03
W · Sub · R1
Ovince Saint PreuxRating 5.6
Submission
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · KO · R2
Bogdan GuskovRating 4.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04

News & Media

Johnny Walker · Ryan Spann
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