UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
Detroit, USA
2 Dec 2017
Women's Strawweight
VS
49%
Herrig
51%
Casey
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
FH
Felice Herrig
"Lil Bulldog"
14 – 10
5'4"65" reachOrthodox41 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 26
CC
Cortney Casey
"Cast Iron"
10 – 10
Well-Rounded39 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'7"
CFR 28

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Casey

This is a genuine toss-up — Herrig at 49% vs Casey at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Casey throws more volume but Herrig connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Herrig
Casey
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'7"
65"
Reach
+67"
41
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Herrig
Casey
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
26.3
27.5
41.4
Performance Avg
40.3
36
Quality of Victory
41
66
Momentum Score
73
Herrig
Casey
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.7
41%
Strike Accuracy
39%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
22
4
Body
2
10
Leg
7
RangeRange
25Distance31
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Herrig
Casey
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.9
3.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Herrig
Casey
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
72
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/24 fights
Chin rating based on
15/20 fights
Herrig
Casey
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
66
73
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
Herrig
Casey
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Herrig
Casey
Striking1.0 / 2.5Volume5.8 / 4.8Grappling4.6 / 3.9Wrestling3.3 / 2.7Submission4.0 / 3.3Pressure4.3 / 4.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
4.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.9
3.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
Herrig
Strike Zones
Casey
Herrig
Attacking
11HEAD4BODY10LEGS25 landed
Absorbing
22HEAD2BODY7LEGS31 absorbed
Casey
Attacking
22HEAD2BODY7LEGS31 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD4BODY10LEGS25 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Herrig targets the head (44% of attacks) — Casey absorbs 44% of strikes there
🎯Casey targets the head (71% of attacks) — Herrig absorbs 71% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Herrig
RND
Casey
0/0R00/0

Herrig · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.2W5.5L5.0W5.7W4.5W4.5W5.5L5.5L2.2L2.8L2014-122017-022018-042022-06
WinLossTrend

Casey · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0105.7L5.5L5.0W5.0W5.5L4.5W5.5L5.5L4.6W5.5L5.0W5.2L6.1L4.5W5.5L2015-072016-112018-082021-032022-07
WinLossTrend

Herrig · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Karolina KowalkiewiczRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · 2022-06
L · Sub · R1
Virna JandirobaRating 2.2
Submission
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · 2020-08
L · Dec · R3
Michelle Waterson-GomezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10
L · Dec · R3
Karolina KowalkiewiczRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Cortney CaseyRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12

Casey · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Antonina ShevchenkoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · 2022-07
W · Dec · R3
Liana JojuaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · 2021-11
L · Dec · R3
JJ AldrichRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad · 2021-03
L · Sub · R3
Gillian RobertsonRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov · 2020-06
W · Sub · R1
Mara Romero BorellaRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · 2020-05

News & Media

Felice Herrig · Cortney Casey
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