UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev
New York City, USA
15 Nov 2025
Lightweight
VS
55%
Borshchev
45%
Camilo
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Borshchev
This is a genuine toss-up — Borshchev at 55% vs Camilo at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Borshchev has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 22 points.
Borshchev has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Borshchev's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Borshchev
Camilo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
69"
Reach
69"
34
Age
+25
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Borshchev
Camilo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.4
37.9
41.3
Performance Avg
35.0
47
Quality of Victory
25
40
Momentum Score
46
Borshchev
Camilo
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
0.5
48%
Strike Accuracy
41%
7.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
24
Head
11
6
Body
3
7
Leg
3
RangeRange
37Distance17
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Borshchev
Camilo
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Borshchev
Camilo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
88
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/15 fights
Chin rating based on
3/13 fights
Borshchev
Camilo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
46
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Borshchev
Camilo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Borshchev
Camilo
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.5
3.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.0
BorshchevCamilo
Strike Zones
Borshchev
Attacking
37 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedCamilo
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
37 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Borshchev targets the head (65% of attacks) — Camilo absorbs 65% of strikes there
🎯Camilo targets the head (65% of attacks) — Borshchev absorbs 65% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Borshchev
RND
Camilo
0/0R00/0
Borshchev · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Camilo · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Borshchev · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Matheus CamiloRating 5.6Decision
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Upcoming
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