METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn
Phoenix, USA
15 Jan 2017
Heavyweight
VS
75%
Oleinik
25%
Pesta
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:57
★ Official Result
Aleksei OleinikwinsSubmissionR1 · 2:57
def. Viktor Pesta · UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Oleinik
→
Actual result
Oleinik wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Oleinik is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Oleinik has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 26 points.
Oleinik has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Oleinik's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pesta has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
OleinikPesta
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Oleinik
Pesta
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'3"
80"+
Reach
77"
49
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Oleinik
Pesta
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
26.5
8.6
52.0
Performance Avg
23.0
51
Quality of Victory
25
39
Momentum Score
30
Oleinik
Pesta
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.6
0.4
49%
Strike Accuracy
40%
2.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.4
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
7
0
Body
0
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground4
Oleinik
Pesta
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
6.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
4.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Oleinik
Pesta
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
42
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/77 fights
Chin rating based on
5/14 fights
Oleinik
Pesta
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
30
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Oleinik
Pesta
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
89%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
7
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Oleinik
Pesta
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.4
6.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
4.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
7.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.6
1.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.4
OleinikPesta
Strike Zones
Oleinik
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedPesta
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Oleinik targets the head (57% of attacks) — Pesta absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Pesta targets the head (100% of attacks) — Oleinik absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Oleinik
RND
Pesta
0/0R00/0
Oleinik · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Pesta · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Oleinik · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Ilir LatifiRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · 2022-10
W · Sub · R1
Jared VanderaaRating 5Submission
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04
L · Dec · R3
Serghei SpivacRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige · 2021-06
L · KO · R1
Chris DaukausRating 1.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · 2021-02
L · KO · R2
Derrick LewisRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · 2020-08
Pesta · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Aleksei OleinikRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · 2017-01
L · KO · R2
Marcin TyburaRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Caceres · 2016-08
L · KO · R3
Derrick LewisRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
W · Dec · R3
Konstantin ErokhinRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01
L · Dec · R3
Ruslan MagomedovRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi · 2014-05