UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
Boston, USA
19 Aug 2023
Middleweight
VS
59%
Weidman
41%
Tavares
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Weidman
This is a genuine toss-up — Weidman at 59% vs Tavares at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Weidman has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 26 points.
Striking split: Tavares throws more volume but Weidman connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Weidman's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Tavares has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Weidman
Tavares
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'1"
78"+
Reach
74"
41
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Weidman
Tavares
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.1
35.6
57.0
Performance Avg
40.1
55
Quality of Victory
29
51
Momentum Score
49
Weidman
Tavares
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.1
48%
Strike Accuracy
45%
4.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.4
4 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
5
1
Body
3
0
Leg
19
RangeRange
10Distance27
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Weidman
Tavares
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.0
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.1
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Weidman
Tavares
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
7
KO/TKO Losses
6
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/24 fights
Chin rating based on
29/34 fights
Weidman
Tavares
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
51
49
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Weidman
Tavares
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
13%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
3
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
14
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Weidman
Tavares
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.4
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.6
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.1
WeidmanTavares
Strike Zones
Weidman
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedTavares
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Weidman targets the head (90% of attacks) — Tavares absorbs 90% of strikes there
🎯Tavares targets the legs (70% of attacks) — Weidman absorbs 70% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Weidman
RND
Tavares
0/0R00/0
Weidman · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Tavares · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Weidman · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Eryk AndersRating 3.5KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Bruno SilvaRating 5.8Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 5.5Decision
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08
L · KO · R1
Uriah HallRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
W · Dec · R3
Omari AkhmedovRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · 2020-08
Tavares · Last 5
Upcoming
Marc-Andre BarriaultUFC Fight Night · 2026-07
L · Dec · R3
Eryk AndersRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
L · KO · R3
Robert BryczekRating 4.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Gerald MeerschaertRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
JunYong ParkRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10