UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green
Las Vegas, USA
7 Oct 2023
Lightweight
VS
57%
Dawson
43%
Green
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:33
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Dawson
This is a genuine toss-up — Dawson at 57% vs Green at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Green has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Dawson's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Green has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Dawson
Green
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
72"+
Reach
71"
32+
Age
39
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Dawson
Green
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.1
49.0
57.5
Performance Avg
45.9
39
Quality of Victory
38
100
Momentum Score
85
Dawson
Green
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
3.2
53%
Strike Accuracy
55%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
2 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
7
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground6
Dawson
Green
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Dawson
Green
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
5
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/27 fights
Chin rating based on
30/52 fights
Dawson
Green
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
85
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
Dawson
Green
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
44%
2
KO / TKO Wins
4
5
Submission Wins
3
5
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Dawson
Green
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
4.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.9
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.6
DawsonGreen
Strike Zones
Dawson
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedGreen
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Green targets the head (100% of attacks) — Dawson absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Dawson
RND
Green
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Dawson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Green · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Dawson · Last 5
W · Sub · R3
Mateusz RebeckiRating 6.1Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · KO · R1
Manuel TorresRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Diego FerreiraRating 5.5Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · KO · R2
Rafa GarciaRating 6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Joe SoleckiRating 5.2Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
Green · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Jeremy StephensRating 5.5Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · KO · R2
Daniel ZellhuberRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
W · Dec · R3
Lance Gibson Jr.Rating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
L · KO · R1
Mauricio RuffyRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · Sub · R1
Paddy PimblettRating 3.2Submission
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07