UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega
Fresno, USA
9 Dec 2017
Bantamweight
VS
28%
Moraes
72%
Sterling
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:07
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Sterling
Sterling is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 33 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Moraes has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Sterling has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Moraes's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Sterling has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Moraes
Sterling
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'7"
67"
Reach
+71"
38
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Moraes
Sterling
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.5
54.2
47.3
Performance Avg
54.2
49
Quality of Victory
38
20
Momentum Score
71
Moraes
Sterling
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.4
42%
Strike Accuracy
52%
4.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.7
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
1
1
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance3
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Moraes
Sterling
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.6
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.3
2.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.2
1
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Moraes
Sterling
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
50
4 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
5
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/33 fights
Chin rating based on
23/31 fights
Moraes
Sterling
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
71
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Moraes
Sterling
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
33%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
4
2
Decision Wins
12
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Moraes
Sterling
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.7
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.2
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
4.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.5
MoraesSterling
Strike Zones
Moraes
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedSterling
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Moraes targets the head (86% of attacks) — Sterling absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Sterling targets the head (33% of attacks) — Moraes absorbs 33% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Moraes
RND
Sterling
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Moraes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Sterling · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Moraes · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Song YadongRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03
L · KO · R2
Merab DvalishviliRating 4KO/TKO
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09
L · KO · R1
Rob FontRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · 2020-12
L · KO · R2
Cory SandhagenRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
Jose AldoRating 5Decision
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · 2019-12
Sterling · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Youssef ZalalRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Dec · R5
Brian OrtegaRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Movsar EvloevRating 6.8Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Calvin KattarRating 5Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
L · KO · R2
Sean O'MalleyRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08