METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang
Shanghai, China
23 Aug 2025
Flyweight
VS
58%
Johnson
42%
Kavanagh
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:35
★ Official Result
Charles JohnsonwinsKO/TKOR2 · 4:35
def. Lone'er Kavanagh · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Johnson
→
Actual result
Johnson wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Johnson at 58% vs Kavanagh at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Johnson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Risk flags
Johnson's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Kavanagh has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
JohnsonKavanagh
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Johnson
Kavanagh
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'6"
70"+
Reach
67"
35
Age
+27
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Johnson
Kavanagh
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.5
41.2
48.2
Performance Avg
39.0
43
Quality of Victory
25
96
Momentum Score
60
Johnson
Kavanagh
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.5
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
4.8
Style: Pressure
1.8
5.6
Style: Volume
9.2
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
15
4
Body
7
11
Leg
1
RangeRange
23Distance19
4Clinch4
3Ground0
Johnson
Kavanagh
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.2
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
1.1
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Johnson
Kavanagh
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
66
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/27 fights
Chin rating based on
6/11 fights
Johnson
Kavanagh
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
96
60
W · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Johnson
Kavanagh
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Johnson
Kavanagh
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.2
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.8
5.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.2
JohnsonKavanagh
Strike Zones
Johnson
Attacking
30 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedKavanagh
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
30 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Johnson targets the head (50% of attacks) — Kavanagh absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Kavanagh targets the head (65% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 65% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Johnson
RND
Kavanagh
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Johnson · Last 5
W · Sub · R3
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Bruno SilvaDecision
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Alex PerezKO/TKO
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W · KO · R2
Lone'er KavanaghKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
Kavanagh · Last 5
Upcoming
Ramazan TemirovUFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · 2026-10
L · Sub · R3
Brandon RoyvalSubmission
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W · Dec · R5
Brandon MorenoDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · KO · R2
Charles JohnsonKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Felipe dos SantosDecision
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