UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
Las Vegas, USA
10 Jul 2021
Middleweight
VS
46%
Akhmedov
54%
Tavares
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
OA
Omari Akhmedov
"Wolverine"
21 – 6
6'0"73" reachOrthodox38 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 30
Brad
Brad Tavares
21 – 13
Well-Rounded2-fight slide38 yrsOrthodox74" reach6'1"
CFR 36

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Tavares

This is a genuine toss-up — Akhmedov at 46% vs Tavares at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Tavares has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Akhmedov's chin rating of 40 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Tavares has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Akhmedov
Tavares
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'1"
73"
Reach
+74"
38
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Akhmedov
Tavares
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
30.2
35.6
47.0
Performance Avg
40.1
36
Quality of Victory
29
100
Momentum Score
49
Akhmedov
Tavares
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.1
34%
Strike Accuracy
45%
3.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.4
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
21
1
Body
7
3
Leg
10
RangeRange
20Distance37
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Akhmedov
Tavares
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.0
2.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.1
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Akhmedov
Tavares
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
40
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
6
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/27 fights
Chin rating based on
29/34 fights
Akhmedov
Tavares
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
49
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Akhmedov
Tavares
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
13%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
14

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Akhmedov
Tavares
Striking3.5 / 2.4Volume6.6 / 8.1Grappling2.5 / 2.1Wrestling1.7 / 1.5Submission1.1 / 0.0Pressure4.3 / 2.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.4
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.6
6.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.1
Akhmedov
Strike Zones
Tavares
Akhmedov
Attacking
16HEAD1BODY3LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
21HEAD7BODY10LEGS38 absorbed
Tavares
Attacking
21HEAD7BODY10LEGS38 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD1BODY3LEGS20 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Akhmedov targets the head (80% of attacks) — Tavares absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Tavares targets the head (55% of attacks) — Akhmedov absorbs 55% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Akhmedov
RND
Tavares
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Akhmedov · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.0W2.6L4.5W5.0W4.0L4.5L4.5W6.0W4.5W4.9W4.5W6.3L5.2W5.5L2013-112015-122019-032021-012021-07
WinLossTrend

Tavares · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.5W5.0W5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5L2.8L4.5W2.4L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5W6.9L2.9L4.5W4.5W7.4L2.8L5.3W5.6L6.6L5.6W4.9L6.3L2010-062014-012017-102023-042026-03
WinLossTrend

Akhmedov · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 5.5
Decision
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W · Sub · R2
Tom BreeseRating 5.2
Submission
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L · Dec · R3
Chris WeidmanRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · 2020-08
W · Dec · R3
Ian HeinischRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · 2019-12
W · Dec · R3
Zak CummingsRating 4.9
Decision
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · 2019-09

Tavares · Last 5

Upcoming
Marc-Andre Barriault
UFC Fight Night · 2026-07
L · Dec · R3
Eryk AndersRating 6.3
Decision
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Robert BryczekRating 4.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Gerald MeerschaertRating 5.6
Decision
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L · Dec · R3
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Decision
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News & Media

Omari Akhmedov · Brad Tavares
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