Alan Patrick vs Stevie Ray — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg

Brasilia, Brazil

24 Sept 2016

Lightweight

60%

Patrick

40%

Ray

Win Probability

Decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Alan Patrick

"Nuguette"

15 – 4

5'11"74" reachSouthpaw43 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded

CFR 23

Stevie Ray

"Braveheart"

23 – 9

Well-Rounded36 yrsSouthpaw70" reach5'10"

CFR 15

★ Official Result

Alan PatrickwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00

def. Stevie Ray · UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Patrick

→

Actual result

Patrick wins

Decision · R3

Pre-fight analysis

Patrick holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Ray has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Patrick's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Ray has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

PatrickRay

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Patrick

Ray

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'11"+

Height

5'10"

74"+

Reach

70"

Age

+36

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

Patrick

Ray

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

22.8

15.4

41.4

Performance Avg

46.0

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Patrick

Ray

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

3.1

/ 10

4.1

/ 10

3.1

Style: Pressure

3.9

7.5

Style: Volume

7.0

1 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

2 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

1Distance0

0Clinch0

1Ground1

Patrick

Ray

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

1.9

/ 10

1.7

/ 10

1.3

Wrestling Style (/10)

1.2

0.0

Submission Style (/10)

0.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Patrick

Ray

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

KO risk

Verdict

KO risk

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R2.3 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R1.0 stoppage

Most recent fight

Last KO loss

1 fight ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

10/19 fights

Chin rating based on

11/32 fights

Patrick

Ray

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

3-fight 📉 slide

Current form

L · KO · R2

Upcoming

L · Dec · R3

L · KO · R3

W · Dec · R3

Last 5

W · Dec · R3

L · KO · R1

W · Dec · R3

L · Dec · R3

L · KO · R1

Patrick

Ray

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

20%

29%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Patrick

Ray

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

3.1

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

4.1

1.9

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

1.7

1.3

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

1.2

0.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

3.1

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

3.9

7.5

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

7.0

Patrick

Strike Zones

Ray

Patrick

Attacking

2 landed

Absorbing

1 absorbed

Ray

Attacking

1 landed

Absorbing

2 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Patrick targets the head (100% of attacks) — Ray absorbs 100% of strikes there

🎯Ray targets the head (100% of attacks) — Patrick absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Patrick

RND

Ray

0/0R00/0

Patrick · Last 5

L · KO · R2

Michael Johnson

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05

Upcoming

Mason Jones

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · 2021-06

L · Dec · R3

King Green

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · 2020-09

L · KO · R3

Scott Holtzman

KO/TKO

UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10

W · Dec · R3

Damir Hadzovic

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02

Ray · Last 5

W · Dec · R3

Michael Johnson

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren · 2019-10

L · KO · R1

Leonardo Santos

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · 2019-06

W · Dec · R3

Jessin Ayari

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith · 2018-10

L · Dec · R3

Kajan Johnson

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov · 2018-03

L · KO · R1

Paul Felder

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio · 2017-07

News & Media

Alan Patrick · Stevie Ray

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