UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
Glendale, USA
12 Jun 2021
Heavyweight
VS
48%
Felipe
52%
Collier
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
CF
Carlos Felipe
"Boi"
11 – 2
6'0"75" reachOrthodox31 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 25
JC
Jake Collier
"The Prototype"
13 – 10
Well-Rounded4-fight slide37 yrsOrthodox78" reach6'3"
CFR 27

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Collier

This is a genuine toss-up — Felipe at 48% vs Collier at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Collier has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.

Striking split: Collier throws more volume but Felipe connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Collier has a chin rating of 2 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Felipe
Collier
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'3"
75"
Reach
+78"
31+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Felipe
Collier
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
24.5
26.7
39.0
Performance Avg
36.4
25
Quality of Victory
37
65
Momentum Score
45
Felipe
Collier
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
1.9
52%
Strike Accuracy
43%
1.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
36
Head
40
5
Body
9
0
Leg
5
RangeRange
39Distance52
2Clinch2
0Ground0
Felipe
Collier
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.0
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Felipe
Collier
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
2
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/13 fights
Chin rating based on
14/23 fights
Felipe
Collier
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
45
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Felipe
Collier
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
40%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Felipe
Collier
Striking1.2 / 2.7Volume9.2 / 5.5Grappling2.4 / 3.0Wrestling1.7 / 2.1Submission0.0 / 2.0Pressure1.8 / 3.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.7
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
1.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
9.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.5
Felipe
Strike Zones
Collier
Felipe
Attacking
36HEAD5BODY0LEGS41 landed
Absorbing
40HEAD9BODY5LEGS54 absorbed
Collier
Attacking
40HEAD9BODY5LEGS54 landed
Absorbing
36HEAD5BODY0LEGS41 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Felipe targets the head (88% of attacks) — Collier absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Collier targets the head (74% of attacks) — Felipe absorbs 74% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Felipe
RND
Collier
0/0R00/0

Felipe · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0106.0L4.5W6.1W4.5W6.2L2020-072020-102021-012021-062021-10
WinLossTrend

Collier · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0101.5L4.5W2.8L5.2W5.5L4.5W3.9L4.5W5.5L5.0W6.2L3.8L6.5L6.5L2014-122017-042021-062023-042023-09
WinLossTrend

Felipe · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Andrei ArlovskiRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont · 2021-10
W · Dec · R3
Jake CollierRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
W · Dec · R3
Justin TafaRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · 2021-01
W · Dec · R3
Yorgan De CastroRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana · 2020-10
L · Dec · R3
Serghei SpivacRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2 · 2020-07

Collier · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Mohammed UsmanRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09
L · Dec · R3
Martin BudayRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon · 2023-04
L · KO · R2
Chris BarnettRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · Dec · R3
Andrei ArlovskiRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04
W · Sub · R1
Chase ShermanRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01

News & Media

Carlos Felipe · Jake Collier
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