METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2
Las Vegas, USA
10 Aug 2024
Women's Strawweight
VS
54%
Luciano
46%
Alencar
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Stephanie LucianowinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Talita Alencar · UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Luciano
→
Actual result
Luciano wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Luciano at 54% vs Alencar at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Luciano has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
LucianoAlencar
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Luciano
Alencar
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"+
Height
5'1"
65"+
Reach
58"
26+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Luciano
Alencar
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
69.6
58.3
59.8
Performance Avg
50.0
50
Quality of Victory
30
96
Momentum Score
91
Luciano
Alencar
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.5
/ 10
1.6
/ 10
6.9
Style: Pressure
4.2
4.2
Style: Volume
7.6
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
4
4
Body
9
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
19Distance11
2Clinch4
1Ground0
Luciano
Alencar
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
6.1
/ 10
3.8
/ 10
4.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.7
6.7
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
2
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Luciano
Alencar
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
98
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/9 fights
Chin rating based on
5/9 fights
Luciano
Alencar
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
96
91
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Luciano
Alencar
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
25%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Luciano
Alencar
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.6
6.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
4.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
6.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
6.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
4.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.6
LucianoAlencar
Strike Zones
Luciano
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedAlencar
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Luciano targets the head (73% of attacks) — Alencar absorbs 73% of strikes there
🎯Alencar targets the body (60% of attacks) — Luciano absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Luciano
RND
Alencar
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Luciano · Last 4
W · Sub · R1
Marina SpasicSubmission
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W · Sub · R3
Ravena OliveiraSubmission
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Sam HughesDecision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Talita AlencarDecision
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
Alencar · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Julia PolastriDecision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Sub · R3
Ariane CarnelossiSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Vanessa DemopoulosDecision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
Stephanie LucianoDecision
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Rayanne dos SantosDecision
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12