METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Las Vegas, USA
11 Jul 2026
Flyweight
VS
64%
Costa
36%
Durden
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:19
★ Official Result
Alessandro CostawinsSubmissionR2 · 2:19
def. Cody Durden · UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Costa
→
Actual result
Costa wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Costa holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Durden has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 29 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Costa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.
Risk flags
Costa's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Durden has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CostaDurden
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Costa
Durden
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'7"
67"
Reach
67"
30+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Costa
Durden
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
65.6
36.8
57.9
Performance Avg
37.6
55
Quality of Victory
34
85
Momentum Score
54
Costa
Durden
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
9.3
/ 10
2.3
/ 10
8.9
Style: Pressure
3.3
1.3
Style: Volume
6.6
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
9
0
Body
0
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
3Distance11
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Costa
Durden
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.6
/ 10
2.9
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.0
2.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.4
1
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Costa
Durden
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
5
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/20 fights
Chin rating based on
17/28 fights
Costa
Durden
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
85
54
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
Costa
Durden
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
29%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Costa
Durden
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.3
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
8.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.3
1.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.6
CostaDurden
Strike Zones
Costa
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedDurden
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Costa targets the head (80% of attacks) — Durden absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Durden targets the head (82% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 82% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Costa
RND
Durden
0/0R00/0
Costa · Last 5
W · Sub · R2
Cody DurdenSubmission
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W · KO · R1
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W · KO · R2
Stewart NicollKO/TKO
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L · KO · R3
Alden CoriaKO/TKO
Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
W · KO · R2
Kevin BorjasKO/TKO
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
Durden · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Alessandro CostaSubmission
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W · Dec · R3
Jafel FilhoDecision
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L · Sub · R2
Allan NascimentoSubmission
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L · KO · R2
Jose OchoaKO/TKO
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