UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
Oklahoma City, USA
25 Jun 2017
Women's Strawweight
VS
46%
Esparza
54%
Moroz
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Carla
Carla Esparza
"Cookie Monster"
20 – 8
5'1"63" reachOrthodox38 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 41
Maryna
Maryna Moroz
"Iron Lady"
11 – 6
Well-Rounded3-fight slide34 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'7"
CFR 47

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Moroz

This is a genuine toss-up — Esparza at 46% vs Moroz at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Moroz throws more volume but Esparza connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Esparza's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Esparza
Moroz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'1"
Height
+5'7"
63"
Reach
+67"
38
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Esparza
Moroz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.7
46.9
45.9
Performance Avg
40.3
35
Quality of Victory
34
60
Momentum Score
90
Esparza
Moroz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.9
40%
Strike Accuracy
35%
2.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
9
1
Body
1
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance9
2Clinch0
4Ground1
Esparza
Moroz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Esparza
Moroz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
78
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/28 fights
Chin rating based on
12/17 fights
Esparza
Moroz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
90
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Esparza
Moroz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
33%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
2
8
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Esparza
Moroz
Striking2.3 / 1.0Volume7.7 / 6.3Grappling2.7 / 4.3Wrestling1.9 / 3.0Submission1.0 / 3.3Pressure3.3 / 3.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
3.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.8
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
Esparza
Strike Zones
Moroz
Esparza
Attacking
6HEAD1BODY4LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD1BODY0LEGS10 absorbed
Moroz
Attacking
9HEAD1BODY0LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD1BODY4LEGS11 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Esparza targets the head (55% of attacks) — Moroz absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Moroz targets the head (90% of attacks) — Esparza absorbs 90% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Esparza
RND
Moroz
0/0R00/0

Esparza · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0106.7W2.1L4.5W5.5L5.1W4.5W5.5L5.9L5.2W5.7W4.5W5.2W6.2W5.9W4.0L6.2L2014-122017-062019-042021-052024-10
WinLossTrend

Moroz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.2W5.5L4.5W4.5W5.8L5.6L4.5W5.1W5.5W5.5L2.7L5.7L2015-042016-082019-032022-112024-03
WinLossTrend

Esparza · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Tecia PenningtonRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Sub · R2
Zhang WeiliRating 4
Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
W · Dec · R5
Rose NamajunasRating 5.9
Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
W · KO · R2
Yan XiaonanRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · 2021-05
W · Dec · R3
Marina RodriguezRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07

Moroz · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Joanne WoodRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · Sub · R1
Karine SilvaRating 2.7
Submission
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08
L · Dec · R3
Jennifer MaiaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · 2022-11
W · Sub · R2
Mariya AgapovaRating 5.5
Submission
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
W · Dec · R3
Mayra Bueno SilvaRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03

News & Media

Carla Esparza · Maryna Moroz
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