★ Championship Bout · Ultimate Fighter 15 Lightweight Tournament
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Finale
Las Vegas, USA
1 Jun 2012
Ultimate Fighter 15 Lightweight Tournament
VS
66%
Chiesa
34%
Iaquinta
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:47
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Chiesa
Chiesa holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Iaquinta has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Iaquinta has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Chiesa's chin rating of 36 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Iaquinta has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Chiesa
Iaquinta
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'10"
75"+
Reach
70"
38+
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Chiesa
Iaquinta
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.7
25.8
53.3
Performance Avg
47.0
43
Quality of Victory
38
50
Momentum Score
51
Chiesa
Iaquinta
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.6
41%
Strike Accuracy
45%
1.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.6
0 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
6
1
Body
1
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
9Distance8
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Chiesa
Iaquinta
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
5.8
/ 10
1.3
/ 10
4.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.9
6.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
9
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Chiesa
Iaquinta
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
36
48
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
5
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/27 fights
Chin rating based on
15/21 fights
Chiesa
Iaquinta
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
51
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
Chiesa
Iaquinta
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
44%
0
KO / TKO Wins
4
9
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Chiesa
Iaquinta
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.6
5.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.3
4.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.9
6.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.9
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.6
ChiesaIaquinta
Strike Zones
Chiesa
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedIaquinta
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Chiesa targets the head (56% of attacks) — Iaquinta absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Iaquinta targets the head (75% of attacks) — Chiesa absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Chiesa
RND
Iaquinta
0/0R00/0
Chiesa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Iaquinta · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Chiesa · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Niko PriceRating 5.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Court McGeeRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
W · Sub · R3
Max GriffinRating 6.1Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Sub · R1
Tony FergusonRating 5.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Sub · R1
Kevin HollandRating 2.1Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
Iaquinta · Last 5
L · KO · R1
King GreenRating 2.2KO/TKO
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
L · Dec · R3
Dan HookerRating 6.4Decision
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya · 2019-10
L · Dec · R5
Donald CerroneRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · 2019-05
W · Dec · R5
Kevin LeeRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta · 2018-12
L · Dec · R5
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 5.5Decision
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04