UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2
Beijing, China
24 Nov 2018
Heavyweight
VS
23%
Overeem
77%
Pavlovich
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:21
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Pavlovich
Pavlovich is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 42 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Pavlovich throws more volume but Overeem connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Overeem's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pavlovich has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Overeem
Pavlovich
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'3"
80"
Reach
+84"
46
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Overeem
Pavlovich
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.1
59.8
55.0
Performance Avg
60.6
52
Quality of Victory
53
56
Momentum Score
59
Overeem
Pavlovich
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
2.5
73%
Strike Accuracy
47%
8.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.9
9 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
9
8
Body
3
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance8
7Clinch5
12Ground0
Overeem
Pavlovich
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.6
/ 10
0.6
/ 10
0.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Overeem
Pavlovich
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
54
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
8
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.1 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/66 fights
Chin rating based on
12/23 fights
Overeem
Pavlovich
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
59
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Overeem
Pavlovich
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
75%
9
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Overeem
Pavlovich
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.9
0.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.6
0.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.4
3.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
OvereemPavlovich
Strike Zones
Overeem
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedPavlovich
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Overeem targets the head (59% of attacks) — Pavlovich absorbs 59% of strikes there
🎯Pavlovich targets the head (69% of attacks) — Overeem absorbs 69% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Overeem
RND
Pavlovich
0/0R00/0
Overeem · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Pavlovich · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Overeem · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Alexander VolkovRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · 2021-02
W · KO · R5
Augusto SakaiRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai · 2020-09
W · KO · R2
Walt HarrisRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · 2020-05
L · KO · R5
Jairzinho RozenstruikRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
W · KO · R1
Aleksei OleinikRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · 2019-04
Pavlovich · Last 5
Upcoming
Tallison TeixeiraUFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Jairzinho RozenstruikRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkovRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
L · KO · R1
Tom AspinallRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11