UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal
Las Vegas, USA
19 Dec 2020
Welterweight
VS
35%
Pettis
65%
Morono
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Morono
Morono holds a meaningful edge at 65% per the CFR ratings — but Pettis has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pettis has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Striking split: Morono throws more volume but Pettis connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Pettis's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Morono has a chin rating of 20 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Pettis
Morono
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
72"
Reach
72"
39
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pettis
Morono
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.8
35.0
52.6
Performance Avg
43.3
51
Quality of Victory
35
72
Momentum Score
20
Pettis
Morono
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
2.0
52%
Strike Accuracy
41%
3.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.7
3 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
2
1
Body
0
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
11Distance3
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Pettis
Morono
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Pettis
Morono
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
20
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/34 fights
Chin rating based on
24/37 fights
Pettis
Morono
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
20
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Pettis
Morono
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
31%
3
KO / TKO Wins
2
4
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pettis
Morono
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.7
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
3.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.5
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.7
PettisMorono
Strike Zones
Pettis
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedMorono
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pettis targets the head (75% of attacks) — Morono absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Morono targets the head (67% of attacks) — Pettis absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pettis
RND
Morono
0/0R00/0
Pettis · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Morono · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Pettis · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · 2020-12
W · Dec · R3
Donald CerroneRating 4.5Decision
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L · Sub · R2
Diego FerreiraRating 3.8Submission
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01
L · Dec · R3
Nate DiazRating 5.5Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
W · KO · R2
Stephen ThompsonRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03
Morono · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Daniil DonchenkoRating 7.8Decision
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