Casey O'Neill vs Gabriella Fernandes — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer

Seattle, USA

28 Mar 2026

Women's Flyweight

57%

O'Neill

43%

Fernandes

Win Probability

KO/TKO

Round 1 · 3:11

Casey O'Neill

"King"

11 – 2

5'6"69" reachOrthodox28 yrs2-fight win streakStriker

CFR 59

Gabriella Fernandes

"Gabi"

11 – 4

Well-Rounded33 yrsSouthpaw66" reach5'6"

CFR 44

★ Official Result

Casey O'NeillwinsKO/TKOR1 · 3:11

def. Gabriella Fernandes · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

O'Neill

→

Actual result

O'Neill wins

KO/TKO · R1

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — O'Neill at 57% vs Fernandes at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

O'NeillFernandes

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

O'Neill

Fernandes

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'6"

Height

5'6"

69"+

Reach

66"

28+

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

O'Neill

Fernandes

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

58.5

43.9

56.5

Performance Avg

43.4

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

O'Neill

Fernandes

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

6.5

/ 10

1.0

/ 10

6.9

Style: Pressure

3.8

4.2

Style: Volume

6.3

3 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

0 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

25Distance8

0Clinch0

0Ground0

O'Neill

Fernandes

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

2.1

/ 10

4.3

/ 10

1.5

Wrestling Style (/10)

3.0

1.7

Submission Style (/10)

3.3

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

O'Neill

Fernandes

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Never stopped

Verdict

Moderate

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

—

KO round context

Avg R1.0 stoppage

—

Last KO loss

Most recent fight

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

9/13 fights

Chin rating based on

6/15 fights

O'Neill

Fernandes

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

2-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

Upcoming

W · KO · R1

W · Dec · R3

L · Sub · R2

L · Dec · R3

Last 5

L · KO · R1

W · Dec · R3

W · Sub · R2

W · Dec · R3

L · Dec · R3

O'Neill

Fernandes

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

67%

33%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

O'Neill

Fernandes

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

6.5

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

1.0

2.1

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

4.3

1.5

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

3.0

1.7

Submission

Submission attack frequency

3.3

6.9

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

3.8

4.2

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

6.3

O'Neill

Strike Zones

Fernandes

O'Neill

Attacking

25 landed

Absorbing

8 absorbed

Fernandes

Attacking

8 landed

Absorbing

25 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯O'Neill targets the head (64% of attacks) — Fernandes absorbs 64% of strikes there

🎯Fernandes targets the head (38% of attacks) — O'Neill absorbs 38% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

O'Neill

RND

Fernandes

0/0R00/0

0/0R10/0

O'Neill · Last 5

Upcoming

Eduarda Moura

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · 2026-09

W · KO · R1

Gabriella Fernandes

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03

W · Dec · R3

Luana Santos

Decision

UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08

L · Sub · R2

Ariane da Silva

Submission

UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12

L · Dec · R3

Jennifer Maia

Decision

UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03

Fernandes · Last 5

L · KO · R1

Casey O'Neill

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03

W · Dec · R3

Julija Stoliarenko

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08

W · Sub · R2

Wang Cong

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · 2024-11

W · Dec · R3

Carli Judice

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira · 2024-06

L · Dec · R3

Tereza Bleda

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06

News & Media

Casey O'Neill · Gabriella Fernandes

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