UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson
Saitama, Japan
26 Sept 2015
Featherweight
VS
43%
Kikuno
57%
Brandao
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:28
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Brandao
This is a genuine toss-up — Kikuno at 43% vs Brandao at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Brandao has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Striking split: Brandao throws more volume but Kikuno connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Kikuno's chin rating of 34 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Brandao has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Kikuno
Brandao
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'7"
66"+
Reach
64"
44
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Kikuno
Brandao
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.2
19.9
38.3
Performance Avg
53.4
37
Quality of Victory
49
63
Momentum Score
79
Kikuno
Brandao
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.5
49%
Strike Accuracy
46%
0.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.9
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
11
0
Body
3
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance4
0Clinch8
0Ground2
Kikuno
Brandao
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.5
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
3.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Kikuno
Brandao
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
34
42
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/32 fights
Chin rating based on
10/33 fights
Kikuno
Brandao
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
79
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R1
W · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Kikuno
Brandao
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Kikuno
Brandao
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.9
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.9
KikunoBrandao
Strike Zones
Kikuno
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedBrandao
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Kikuno targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Brandao absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Brandao targets the head (79% of attacks) — Kikuno absorbs 79% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Kikuno
RND
Brandao
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Kikuno · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.9WinLossTrend
Brandao · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Kikuno · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Diego BrandaoRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09
L · KO · R1
Edimilson SouzaRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare · 2015-03
W · Sub · R2
Sam SiciliaRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson · 2014-09
L · KO · R1
Tony FergusonRating 2KO/TKO
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw · 2014-05
W · Dec · R3
Quinn MulhernRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs Lim · 2014-01
Brandao · Last 5
L · Sub · R3
Brian OrtegaRating 5.4Submission
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit · 2016-01
W · KO · R1
Katsunori KikunoRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09
W · R1
Jimy HettesRating 4UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · 2015-04
L · KO · R1
Conor McGregorRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Brandao · 2014-07
L · KO · R1
Dustin PoirierRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2 · 2013-12