METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
Cleveland, USA
10 Sept 2016
Welterweight
VS
71%
Medeiros
29%
Spencer
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 0:49
★ Official Result
Yancy MedeiroswinsSubmissionR2 · 0:49
def. Sean Spencer · UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Medeiros
→
Actual result
Medeiros wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Medeiros is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Medeiros has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 22 points.
Striking split: Medeiros throws more volume but Spencer connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Medeiros's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Spencer has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MedeirosSpencer
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Medeiros
Spencer
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
75"+
Reach
74"
38+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Medeiros
Spencer
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
24.4
9.8
45.4
Performance Avg
30.0
47
Quality of Victory
25
39
Momentum Score
25
Medeiros
Spencer
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.0
1.8
37%
Strike Accuracy
38%
4.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
0
1
Body
2
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Medeiros
Spencer
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
3.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Medeiros
Spencer
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
50
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/23 fights
Chin rating based on
8/18 fights
Medeiros
Spencer
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
25
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Medeiros
Spencer
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
83%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Medeiros
Spencer
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
4.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
3.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.1
2.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.8
MedeirosSpencer
Strike Zones
Medeiros
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedSpencer
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Medeiros targets the head (67% of attacks) — Spencer absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Spencer targets the body (67% of attacks) — Medeiros absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Medeiros
RND
Spencer
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Medeiros · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Spencer · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Medeiros · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Damir HadzovicRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · 2021-06
L · Dec · R3
Lando VannataRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · 2020-02
L · KO · R2
Gregor GillespieRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · 2019-01
L · KO · R1
Donald CerroneRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02
W · KO · R3
Alex OliveiraRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12
Spencer · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Yancy MedeirosRating 2.8Submission
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem · 2016-09
L · KO · R3
Mike PyleRating 4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02
L · Dec · R3
Cathal PendredRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01
W · Dec · R3
Paulo ThiagoRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arlovski · 2014-09
L · Dec · R3
Alex GarciaRating 5.5Decision
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler · 2014-03