UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
Los Angeles, USA
29 Dec 2018
Welterweight
VS
31%
Condit
69%
Chiesa
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 0:56
CC
Carlos Condit
"The Natural Born Killer"
32 – 14
6'2"75" reachOrthodox42 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 22
Michael
Michael Chiesa
"Maverick"
20 – 7
Well-Rounded4-fight win streak38 yrsSouthpaw75" reach6'1"
CFR 51

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Chiesa

Chiesa holds a meaningful edge at 69% per the CFR ratings — but Condit has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 28 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Condit throws more volume but Chiesa connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Condit's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Chiesa has a chin rating of 36 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Condit
Chiesa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'1"
75"
Reach
75"
42
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Condit
Chiesa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.3
50.7
47.8
Performance Avg
53.3
48
Quality of Victory
43
20
Momentum Score
50
Condit
Chiesa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
0.7
40%
Strike Accuracy
41%
5.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.4
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
1
0
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Condit
Chiesa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.8
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Condit
Chiesa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
36
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
5
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/46 fights
Chin rating based on
22/27 fights
Condit
Chiesa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
50
Current form
4-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Condit
Chiesa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
60%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
9
5
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Condit
Chiesa
Striking5.4 / 1.4Volume4.5 / 4.6Grappling1.1 / 5.8Wrestling0.8 / 4.0Submission0.0 / 6.0Pressure4.5 / 6.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.4
1.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.8
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.3
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
Condit
Strike Zones
Chiesa
Condit
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY1LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Chiesa
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY1LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Condit targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Chiesa absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Chiesa targets the head (100% of attacks) — Condit absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Condit
RND
Chiesa
0/0R00/0

Condit · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.5L4.5W5.5W5.0W5.0W4.5W5.5L5.5L5.4W2.8L4.1W5.8L1.5L6.1L2.8L3.5L4.7W4.9W6.1L2009-042012-022015-052018-122021-07
WinLossTrend

Chiesa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.0W5.2W2.8L5.2W4.5W4.8L4.5W5.7W6.2W1.5L2.8L5.2W4.5W4.7W5.1W3.0L6.6L2.1L5.5W6.1W4.7W5.7W2012-062015-042019-072024-082026-03
WinLossTrend

Condit · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
W · Dec · R3
Matt BrownRating 4.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · 2021-01
W · Dec · R3
Court McGeeRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana · 2020-10
L · Sub · R2
Michael ChiesaRating 3.5
Submission
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
L · Sub · R2
Alex OliveiraRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04

Chiesa · Last 5

W · Sub · R1
Niko PriceRating 5.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Court McGeeRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
W · Sub · R3
Max GriffinRating 6.1
Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Sub · R1
Tony FergusonRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Sub · R1
Kevin HollandRating 2.1
Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07

News & Media

Carlos Condit · Michael Chiesa
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