UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
Sacramento, USA
17 Dec 2016
Welterweight
VS
57%
Velickovic
43%
Aliev
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
BV
Bojan Velickovic
"Serbian Steel"
15 – 6
6'0"76" reachSouthpaw37 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 17
SA
Sultan Aliev
15 – 3
Well-Rounded41 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'11"
CFR 13

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Velickovic

This is a genuine toss-up — Velickovic at 57% vs Aliev at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Velickovic has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.

Striking split: Velickovic throws more volume but Aliev connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Velickovic
Aliev
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
76"+
Reach
74"
37+
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Velickovic
Aliev
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.5
12.5
38.5
Performance Avg
35.0
38
Quality of Victory
25
56
Momentum Score
39
Velickovic
Aliev
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
0.6
31%
Strike Accuracy
40%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
4
2
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
2Clinch0
0Ground4
Velickovic
Aliev
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Velickovic
Aliev
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
76
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/21 fights
Chin rating based on
4/18 fights
Velickovic
Aliev
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
39
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Velickovic
Aliev
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Velickovic
Aliev
Striking5.8 / 1.0Volume4.8 / 9.0Grappling1.2 / 2.4Wrestling0.8 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure4.7 / 1.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.5
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.0
Velickovic
Strike Zones
Aliev
Velickovic
Attacking
0HEAD2BODY2LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Aliev
Attacking
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD2BODY2LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Velickovic targets the body (50% of attacks) — Aliev absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Aliev targets the head (100% of attacks) — Velickovic absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Velickovic
RND
Aliev
0/0R00/0

Velickovic · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0104.5W5.5L5.5W5.5L6.5L2016-042016-122017-052017-092017-11
WinLossTrend

Aliev · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.9
0101.5L4.5W5.0L4.5W2015-012016-122018-052019-04
WinLossTrend

Velickovic · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · 2017-11
L · Dec · R3
Darren TillRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Struve · 2017-09
W · KO · R3
Nicholas MusokeRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira · 2017-05
L · Dec · R3
Sultan AlievRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
Upcoming
Michael Graves
Decision
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · 2016-07

Aliev · Last 4

W · Dec · R3
Keita NakamuraRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · 2019-04
L · R2
Warlley AlvesRating 5
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · 2018-05
W · Dec · R3
Bojan VelickovicRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · KO · R1
Kenny RobertsonRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01

News & Media

Bojan Velickovic · Sultan Aliev
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