UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates
Perth, Australia
2 May 2026
Light Heavyweight
VS
91%
Tafa
9%
Christian
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:42
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Tafa
Tafa is a strong favourite at 91% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 46 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Tafa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 58 points.
Christian has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Tafa's chin rating of 40 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Christian has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Tafa
Christian
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'7"
75"
Reach
+80"
29+
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Tafa
Christian
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.3
5.3
50.0
Performance Avg
0.0
58
Quality of Victory
0
39
Momentum Score
0
Tafa
Christian
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
5.4
59%
Strike Accuracy
71%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
20
Head
2
0
Body
2
1
Leg
9
RangeRange
10Distance13
1Clinch0
10Ground0
Tafa
Christian
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
🥊
Pure striking matchup
Neither fighter has significant grappling in their history
0
Submission wins
0
Tafa
Christian
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
40
66
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/12 fights
Chin rating based on
2/13 fights
Tafa
Christian
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
0
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
Tafa
Christian
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Tafa
Christian
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
0.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
TafaChristian
Strike Zones
Tafa
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedChristian
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Tafa targets the head (95% of attacks) — Christian absorbs 95% of strikes there
🎯Christian targets the legs (69% of attacks) — Tafa absorbs 69% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Tafa
RND
Christian
0/0R00/0
Tafa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Christian · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.7WinLossTrend
Tafa · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Kevin ChristianRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
L · Sub · R2
Billy ElekanaRating 4.3Submission
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
L · Sub · R2
Tuco TokkosRating 3.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · KO · R2
Sean SharafRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
L · Sub · R1
Valter WalkerRating 3.4Submission
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
Christian · Last 2
L · KO · R1
Junior TafaRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
L · Sub · R1
Billy ElekanaRating 3.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11